Maybe 1300 on the SP? Nice round number, and the final waterfall in 2008 began from right around there.
long silver short treasuries (20yr mainly) short AUD/CAD long crude long USD/HUF --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Interesting holds. Keep this in mind however: Commodities and Production levels in manufacturing are higher. However, the Baltic Dry Index is down 14% and falling. The Baltic Dry Index is the best indicator of Demand, on a global level. Not saying that being long Silver, Crude is a bad play. However, keep the exit doors marked. USD long isn't a bad play for a long term move....you may take some more heat but in the long run, the dollar should move up, a few points. Short US treasuries is a Vegas play now. Shorting Munis that are likley in trouble is a bit safer. I would go long the US Treasuries...at these levels. But that is me.
silver is an Armageddon play. Oil is a play on Fed Printing, and the fact that it is lagging other commodities (i have a theory on why this is, but its a bit tin foil). treasuries, rates long term are going up. they cannot stay at this level given the amount of debt we have. they just cant. usd long term, agree. especially against absurdly high currencies like the aud. i know the BDI is low, and expect it to continue to fall. but there will be a level where it wont easily go lower, and i think we're closer to that than most think. speaking of the BDI - anyone know what the fuck happened today on it? cheers.
who is buying today? smart or dumb? if the market goes up 20% this year as everybody says then it makes sense to buy (but with SPY +1.5% and Qs +2% in just one day it already seems risky)
200% sounds too much. but we all know that 50-70% gains in 2011 are totally realistic. i was merely trying to be conservative with my 20% target.