We are oversold by various metrics. We have not had a decent bounce in what seems like a long time. Life is getting too easy for Shorts here. Therefore, in the coming week we should see a nice bounce fueled by short covering. Whether longs get squeeze a bit more before the rebound happens remains to be seen.
Some stocks and ETFs already have a higher closing: JOYG, EWZ, ILF, etc. In case we go lower on Tuesday, I have 20% more cash to deploy.
That is the problem with odds alone, BUT there is something about the odds above. They are not for a one day green but for drift to the upside for a one-two punch. So the right side's payoff (if one hold longer when right) can be "improved" by the holding. That is probably why they say, the money is made holding... If smart money has the same calculations, they probably would gap it up to eliminate the edge (if there is one in the first place), and force the little guys to wait for a retreat to get in or to miss the edge altogether if no retreat. PS: there is one exception to your calculations. It is related to your handle, and I appreciate it more than its inverse.
Shortie: did you find out what the popular people are doing/saying? I have read articles where some are mentioned, and they state they sold at least 50% of their stock holdings (which the probably bought at the top). You remember that guy who came here on ET stating the 1300 target for SP and also giving inventory numbers to support his bullishness. A guy of that kind came out, and argued why he sold his stocks on Friday. He wrote a lot of books (worthless of course) on the stock market, and it is that type of guy I want to pay attention to.
too bad i won't have the money to load up the long truck if we crash tomorrow. i am guessing many pikers on ET are in the same boat.