on the weekly chart SPY is around the middle bollinger band (reasonably priced?). everybody is on vacation = sleepy market maybe for the next few weeks? any major news expected? sell strangles/straddles into the expiration?
I'm 0-3 on these polls and I voted for the Bears because the VIX is low (complacency) and it's August.
I did not see Shortie's thread earlier today, and I thought he gave up publishing it. The title of his last thread suggested that he may have been tired, but apparently he has more energy this time around as his thread title is inspiring and awakening... even when it suggests sleep. Keep up the good work Shortie! KMax: please tell us your opinion. I think it is time for you to be right. All: You do not want me to republish my calls to you to vote immediately. See last week messages.
Expiration is not this week, but there is the weeklies About the dollar: I went long the dollar and over-leveraged. I am already in trouble, and if EUR/USD does not come down, I will be forced to cover and with that a permanent hole will be made in the equity. I lacked discipline.
My problem is the leverage. Sold eur/usd at around 1.3215. My thinking was that stock market would rise after open (which it did), and that EUR/USD will go down, and then I will place my stops to secure a free trade. Instead, it went to the worse level I imagined which was 1.3333. If it goes beyond it this week, I would be forced to cover. If there is a gap-up on Monday....I do not want to think about it now.
I think it will reverse at some point. Hopefully you can hang on till then...but obviously risk management is key.
can't comment on USD but i hope you did not go all in from the risk point of view. i got burnt really badly when i crazily over-leveraged my shorts into Mar-Apr 2010 rally so i know that leverage can be deadly.