1st week summary: the market gained a healthy 1%, the volatility is back. SPX 1270 appears to be the newest front line that has been crossed back and forth a few times. $1M question: where to next?
Bearish. Today was a ragged mess. The VIX needed to finish at all of 17.31 to finish off the complacency, by my figuring, a thing which yesterday I thought would be ridiculously easy. It couldn't even manage that. By the end of the day, if you go by this, IV on SPX options deflated, in the aggregate, by quite a bit, so that a 1% plus increase in the VIX wound up as a 1.5% loss. Crazy. Meantime, the Russell is being dragged lower by the fact the other indexes have no more buyers, even though it's the only one where folks are nervous enough that there's some bullish fuel to work on. Gold is looking iffy, gold stocks are downright yucky, and the dollar is relentless. Bonds did well today. I have no idea if that's a trend reversal, but in recent times that hasn't been a bullish sign either. A correction in the dollar next week would be the only thing that could keep this market from going lower. If that happens, we'll finish higher, I suppose. Other than that, it's got nothing.
Bullish in large cap financials and technology. Downside risk very low in these sectors. Earnings reports from Alcoa, Intel, and JP Morgan are key aspects. Alcoa could help stem the metals sell off. Intel and JP Morgan will likely confirm that corporations in their businesses are making strong revenues and earnings. Bellweathers may renew confidance in other blue chips as investors anticipate stronger earnings and likely dividend increases. Trading opportunities should pick up considerably next two weeks.
That's an ugly chart. GVZ is also relatively low, although that's less important for GLD than VIX is for the S&P: the negative performance correlation isn't as strong at all. Still, I reversed myself to going net negative on GDX until that situation reverses, or we get an upside breakout that cancels all this stuff out.
thestreet.com poll is bullish yet again: Bullish 58.13% 125 votes Bearish 26.51% 57 votes Neutral 15.34% 33 votes but when i see the headlines like this: Earnings to set tone, upside may be limited Reuters - 1 hour ago i think the downside may also be limited.
Maybe the very short term. On the S&P, last week was basically a range with the same hyper-aggressive dip buying we've been seeing for months. Even with the shitty jobs report, worst they could do was kick it down less than a percent for all of a couple hours. Every timeframe beyond 1-2 days back is extremely strong. Though all that said, in this market I wouldn't be especially surprised to wake up and see ES limit down, with the indices opening 25% off prior close.
How many weeks straight are the markets up? I cant even keep count its been so many. This week is another up week, a couple of reasons, earnings and apple. Earnings will drive the market higher like they have the last few quarters, analysts have worked out a situation where they just low ball all the earnings estimates and companies come out and surprise greatly to the upside, will keep the rally going for another 2-3 months. Apple, 20% of the NDX is made up of apple and the news out of verizon on friday night is just another catalyst to keep the stock rising and the NDX up for the rest of the week, I wouldnt doubt AAPL nearing 345 by the close of Tuesday lifting most of tech with it, maybe even Monday it will get to $345!!! Futures will open up green and trade higher into the morning hours of Monday, get ready for the rally and buy any 2 or 3 point dip in the DOW!!!!!!!!
Quiet little small tiny rise in the futures tonight!!!! Stocks End Mixed Ahead of Earnings; Tech Up S&P FUT 1266.7 1.2 +0.09% DOW FUT 11590.0 3.0 +0.03% NAS FUT 2286.0 3.5 +0.15% OIL 89.28 0.03 +0.03% Get ready for huge momentum tomorrow after the VZ announcement, AAPL is going to surge probably to $350+ and $400 by the end of the month, aapl is the nasdaq so the higher apple goes so does the nasdaq, where the rally stops in apple is anyone's guess, it will probably be trading at $600+ a share by the end of the year at the rate its moving.