Weekly Pin Butterfly Strategy

Discussion in 'Journals' started by caroy, Jan 6, 2021.

  1. caroy

    caroy

    Week 4 - Update
    Bought the SNAP 54 calendar put spread sold the 4DTE bought the 18DTE debit @ $0.94

    Rationale: 184% vol in the front and 110% on the back. Playing contraction and earnings Thursday after the close. SNAP has a nice record of earnings underperforming. Hoping to either exit on vol contraction in a day or so looking to make 20%.

    Eying a number of flies to put on later in the week.
     
    #31     Feb 1, 2021
    .sigma likes this.
  2. caroy

    caroy

    Update
    Sold Calendar in Snap @ $1.14 on open today. Up =$0.20

    Entered
    IWM 2/5/21 1:3:2 put fly 212:205:203 @ $0.86
    putting on before a number of call flies tomorrow.
     
    #32     Feb 2, 2021
  3. caroy

    caroy

    Finished up this book last night.
    market taker's edge.jpg

    Good chapters about gamma and reverse gamma scalping. Kind of makes the argument that explains why pinning can happed based on market makers gamma scalping around strikes in which they carry large positions going into expiration. Author writes in a clear style. Although the focus of the book is not for retail traders it is a great read to understand what those who are taking the other side of the order are doing and why they are not the enemy.
     
    #33     Feb 3, 2021
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  4. caroy

    caroy

    Week 4 Update
    Added following flies this morning all expiration 2/5/21

    APPL 1:2:1 call 135-140-145 @ $1.17
    PTON 1:2:1 call 145-160-172.5 @ $2.35
    NIO 1:3:2 call 56-60-62 @ $0.80
    RIOT 1:3:2 call 22-25-26.5 @ $0.60
    EBAY 1:3:2 put 60-57-55.5 @ $0.66

    All tied to short guts at strike with highest OI
     
    #34     Feb 3, 2021
  5. caroy

    caroy

    Week 4 - Update Results

    Flies
    APPL 1:2:1 call 135-140-145 @ $1.17 exit @ $1.50 = + $0.33
    PTON 1:2:1 call 145-160-172.5 @ $2.35 exit @ $1.34 = -$1.01
    NIO 1:3:2 call 56-60-62 @ $0.80 exit @ $1.50 = +$0.70
    RIOT 1:3:2 call 22-25-26.5 @ $0.60 exit @ $0.95 = +$0.35
    EBAY 1:3:2 put 60-57-55.5 @ $0.66 exit @ $0.33 = -$0.33
    IWM 1:3:3 put 212-205-203 @ $0.86 exit @ $0.25 = -$0.61
    VXX 1:2:1 call short 16.5-18.5-20.5 @ credit $0.25 exit at $0.16 = +$0.09

    total flies p/l $0.18
    winning trade percent

    Calendar
    SNAP 54 @ $0.94 exit @ $1.14 + $0.20

    total calendar p /l : $0.20
    winning trade percent: 100

    Straddle
    TLRY 26 @ $1.05 exit @ $1.15 + $0.10

    total straddle p/l: $0.10
    winning trade percent: 100

    overall p/l week 4: + $0.48

    Take Aways:
    • Another positive week so happy with the results.
    • Mental errors on dealing with APPL and dividend risk would have avoided this trade.
    • Went with some wider fly set up and PTON was really promising until it's earning dump. Was in the middle of the profit tent. I legged out for a better fill keeping P/L positive for the week. With the day job I can't watch these all day so have to pick an exit and go.
    • Should have let TLRY run more on the expy straddle play
    • Outtrade with the fucking VXX short fly. Web platform struggling so clunked around with desktop and mixed it up. Out for a win but didn't like the risk reward and couldn't exit intraday to avoid PDT jail so held it overnight.
    • Could have been a few hundred more in profits if PTON worked out.
    • Am going to be more careful with earnings impacts in the coming week.
    • Didn't see any iron fly set ups I liked so didn't trade. Trying to trade the opportunities I see and not force strategies when the set up isn't there just to trade.
    • The majority I put on Wednesday and took profits and limited losses on all of them on Thursday except VXX and PTON.
    • Flat for the weekend gonna take my $48 and buy a six pack of fin du monde and enjoy the polar vortex. Finishing Euan Sinclair "Positional Option Trading This Weekend"
    Happy trading and have a good weekend.
     
    #35     Feb 5, 2021
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  6. caroy

    caroy

    Added a day scalp in a TSLA fly 1:3:2 put 2/5/21 exp 855-850-847.5 in at $0.60 out at $0.90 + $30 up $78 for the week.
     
    #36     Feb 5, 2021
  7. caroy

    caroy

    total return on initial account up 29.3% for the month while only only putting 25% of my capital in play each week. This is a small account looking to hone my strategies before upping the account size around April.
     
    #37     Feb 5, 2021
    ffs1001 likes this.
  8. caroy

    caroy

    Kicking myself that bitch is at $3.00 now. Sigh. Have to learn patience.
     
    #38     Feb 5, 2021

    • Patience can turn into Greed.
    • Waiting for extra profit can turn a winning trade into a loosing trade.
    • One in the hand is worth two in the bush.
     
    #39     Feb 5, 2021
    caroy likes this.
  9. caroy

    caroy

    I hear you. Well said. With the flies maybe I should just be happy with 2x or 3x my initial outlay and forget about that max profit tent. Screwed around with PTON and watched a winner become a loser this week. And I suppose DeepF*%^ngValue watching his $13 millions loss in GME is a good example of patience turning into greed.
     
    #40     Feb 5, 2021