Weekly Pin Butterfly Strategy

Discussion in 'Journals' started by caroy, Jan 6, 2021.

  1. caroy

    caroy

    Week 24 - Totals

    Today's closing trades from yesterday's experiment with the broken wing flies.
    AMZN 10:20:10 3610-3600-3580 bw put fly bot @ cr $0.40 bot in $0.15 + $250
    TSLA 10:20:10 602.5-607.5-610 bw put fly bot @ cr $0.17 rolled up wing for .04 +$130


    Opened Today for Expiration Tomorrow
    COIN 3:6:3 235-250-265 call bot @ $7.40 sold @ $9.50 + $330
    CRWD 3:6:3 240-255-270 put bot @ $6.03 sold @ $7.25 +$366
    GME 2:4:2 180-200-220 call bot @ $7.95 sold @ $10.00 +$410
    NVAX 2:4:2 165-182.5-200 put bot @ $9.45 sold @ $11.00 +$310
    PYPL 2:4:2 285-300-315 call bot @ $9.10 sold @ $10.00 +$180
    RIOT 13:26:13 32-37-42 call bot @ $1.67 sold @ $2.00 +$429
    ROKU 2:4:2 415-450-485 call bot @ $8.75 sold @ $10.00 +$250
    SPCE 3:6:3 45-60-75 call bot @ $5.90 sold @ $5.11 - $237
    SPX 10:20:10 4260-4270-4275 bot credit @ $0.25 bot @ $0.05 +$200
    TSLA 2:4:2 630-650-670 call bot @ $9.90 sold @ $10.50 +$120
    ZM 3:6:3 365-380-395 put bot @ $6.87 sold @ $9.16 +$687

    P/L +$3,452 Commissions: 220 Net P/L +$3,232


    Average winner: $305 Average Loser: -$237

    Winning Trades: 12/13 Winning Trades YTD: 110/155 (70.1%)

    YTD performance: +$8,609 +3.4% return on capital at risk: +43%

    Thoughts
    • Good week and happy with the results.
    • Curious what they could have been had to exit all trades shortly after the open legged SPCE the only loser due to work commitments all day with the day job.
    • Happy with wider strikes as a set up.
    • A good mix of call and put flies without the hedge.
    • SPX rolled up and locked the $200 in leaving a free fly should we have a massive sell off throughout the day but I have no risk. Will keep playing around with these BWB flies next week in SPX and some high dollar value SN's
    • Wishing all a good weekend.
    • Feel like I'm learning what is working and what is not. Don't want to get over confident and lose caution and discipline. Take the wins learn stay humble trade on.
    • net liq 11.JPG
     
    #191     Jul 9, 2021
  2. Very Good Job this week. So happy for you!! Keep it going and thanks again for sharing all the good and bad with us. It is a net good so Congrats and I know you will have a great weedend. It is really astonishing that you had profits on both sides the calls and the puts
     
    #192     Jul 9, 2021
    .sigma likes this.
  3. caroy

    caroy

    Week 25 Update

    Entered today for tomorrow's expiration:

    BYND 3:6:3 105-120-135 put bot @ $6.80
    CVNA 3:6:3 285-300-315 put bot @ $5.41
    DASH 3:6:3 165-180-205 call bot @ $6.85
    MRNA 2:4:2 230-250-270 put bot @ $7.90
    NFLX 3:6:3 535-560-585 call bot @ $6.95
    NVAX 4:8:4 172.5-192.5-212.5 call bot @ $5.20
    NVDA 2:4:2 750-775-800 call bot @$8.65
    PTON 7:14:7 105-110-115 put bot @ $2.94
    RBLX 12:24:12 75-80-85 call bot @ $1.85
    ROKU 3:6:3 395-410-425 call bot @ $6.85

    Thoughts:
    • Earlier in the week some success with the SPX broken wing fly and a few short term selling iron butterflies in SPX made about $300 on these total Experimented again with broken wing fly on monday in AMZN ended up buying back today for a small loss of $130. Fat finger error on the entry.
    • See what tomorrow brings.
    • Keeping with fewer positions and wider strikes.
     
    #193     Jul 15, 2021
  4. caroy

    caroy

    Week 25 totals / update

    BYND 3:6:3 105-120-135 put bot @ $6.80 sold @ $7.50 +$210
    CVNA 3:6:3 285-300-315 put bot @ $5.41 sold @ $1.81 -$1,080
    DASH 3:6:3 165-180-205 call bot @ $6.85 sold @ $7.99 +$342
    MRNA 2:4:2 230-250-270 put bot @ $7.90 sold @ $3.04 -$972
    NFLX 3:6:3 535-560-585 call bot @ $6.95 sold @ $8.00 +$315
    NVAX 4:8:4 172.5-192.5-212.5 call bot @ $5.20 sold @ $7.22 +$808
    NVDA 2:4:2 750-775-800 call bot @$8.65 sold @ $11.00 +$470
    PTON 7:14:7 105-110-115 put bot @ $2.94 sold @ $3.50 +$392
    RBLX 12:24:12 75-80-85 call bot @ $1.85 sold @ $2.80 +$1,140
    ROKU 3:6:3 395-410-425 call bot @ $6.85 sold @ $7.50 +$195


    P/L: +$1,820 Commissions: $168 Net P/L: +$1,685

    Average winner: $484 Average Loser: -$1,026

    Winning Trades: 8/10 Winning Trades YTD: 118/165 (71.5%)

    Performance up 4.1% Return on Capital at Risk YTD: up 51.2%

    Thoughts
    • Happy with this week and overall new highwater mark for this strategy.
    • Another week of wider strike flies and fewer positions keeping capital allocation at only 20k or about 7% Thinking of upping this to a full 10% next week.
    • MRNA was a run away loser early so exited on open to trim loss.
    • Didn't have time to screen sit all day due to other obligations so out of all positions by 9:45 AM playing the opening moves.
    • I am still primarily placing directionally biased flies based on the strike with the highest OI for directional move.
    • Will continue to experiment next week with opening on Monday two to three broken wing put flies for credit and then rolling up the broken wing to lock in a credit and provide a free fly.
    • Will also do a few selling of 20 point wide Iron Flies in SPX for quick decay moves if time allows
    • Thinking about potential annual return. Have been trading the larger account for 12 weeks. If future replicates could be a strategy that returns 30% a year while keeping capital in cash 95% of the time. Wishful thinking and probably dreams and unicorns but time will tell.
    • My ten year old daughter is pleased once again that RBLX was the big winner. I have no idea whatever this game is that she and her friends love but she's constantly bating my ex into buying her crap on it so they must have a decent revenue model.
    net liq 12.JPG
     
    #194     Jul 16, 2021
    .sigma and ffs1001 like this.
  5. ffs1001

    ffs1001

    It's clear that you're profits are increasing since you :
    - reduced the number of trades
    - took away the SPX/VIX hedge
    - reduced the number of meme stocks
    - increased the wing width.

    Kudos for fine-tuning your strat.
     
    #195     Jul 16, 2021
    .sigma likes this.
  6. caroy

    caroy

    @ffs1001 Agreed. Putting the input from others on this board - yourself included - has helped refine the strategy. Ditching the hedge has helped immensely.
     
    #196     Jul 16, 2021
  7. You posted results at 10:22 AM so you are really closing out early compared to prior weeks. Congrats on 3 straight good weeks.
     
    #197     Jul 16, 2021
  8. caroy

    caroy

    @IlliniTrader last couple of weeks it has worked to just exit pretty early after the opening. The move towards highest OI seems to either happen or it doesn't and waiting around can turn winners into losers. I exited NVDA at a nice win early had I held it would have had a massive sell off.
     
    #198     Jul 17, 2021
    cesfx likes this.
  9. I have not looked closely at the structure of the trade setup but are you getting most of your profits in price movements of the underlying toward the pin level or is it price decay of the 2 options sold in the middle of the BF?
     
    #199     Jul 17, 2021
  10. caroy

    caroy

    It's really both coming into play at once. I'm usually in stocks with good implied volatility otherwise it would be cheaper to just buy calls for the directional move. Thursday to Friday all these factors combine as theta goes to zero and your long call gamma goes full as your long calls are ITM and their delta goes to 1. Part of why I've gravitated to the Thursday entry.
     
    #200     Jul 17, 2021
    Illini Trader and .sigma like this.