Last 2 hours of SPX (ES) near expiration price movement has been the same magntitude as last Friday. I am definitely not ready to move from paper trading. Although last few hours of both Monday and Wednesday offered long straddles and ratio spread opportunities if I could time them right. I think this has isolated my market timing problems. Maybe cash settled Mon., Wed. and Fri SPX options are not better than ES options. Any suggestions.
I had a couple SPX 0DTE IC earlier in the week worked well and one straddle in /ES that was profitable All wiped by a losing one way bet for scratch in an /ES put overnight. Flies worked this week though.
Week 13 - Update Entered all on Thursday 4/15 all exited on 4/16 ETSY 1:2:1 202.5-210-217.5 put bot @ 1.60 sold @ 3.00 +1.40 FUTU 1:2:1 140-145-150 put bot @ 1.75 sold @ 2.04 +0.29 RIOT 1:2:1 45-50-55 call bot @ 1.77 sold $0.19 -1.58 PENN 1:2:1 98-105-112 call bot @ 1.88 sold @ 3.00 +1.12 QS 1:2:1 36-40-44 call bot @ 1.25 sold @ .07 -1.18 CVNA 1:2:1 270-280-290 call bot @ 3.75 sold @ 4.00 +0.25 SPY 1:2:1 405-410-415 put bot @ 0.91 sold @ 0.35 -0.56 BABA 1:2:1 iron fly 235-240-245 sold @ 2.82 bot @ 2.25 +0.57 BYND 1:2:1 135-140-145 call bot @ 1.72 sold @ 1.80 +0.08 DKNG 1:2:1 56-60-64 call bot @ 1.25 sold @ 2.60 +1.35 TWTR 1:2:1 67-70-73 put bot @ 1.35 sold @ 1.99 +0.64 TSLA 1:2:1 740-750-760 call bot @ 1.25 sold @ 0.77 -0.58 total +1.80 or up $180 Take Away Profitable week can't bitch Sold an iron fly based on pinning in BABA worked will look to see others of these Ideally would like the mix of the one day play to be 1/3 call 1/3 put 1/3 Iron flies Stayed away from straddles today not much movement. Account goes larger next week 250 k net liq as funds deposit business sale has finally closed.. - Deciding to trade 2% of value in flies for the first month and then decide from their to up exposure. Going back and forth on playing the M,W,F straddles or Iron flies in /ES or SPX. I'd say success with these is positive overall but I'm not loving the feeling. Thinking flies only for the next month. CVNA would have been a larger winner had I exited earlier. Once again taking a nice return over being greedy. TSLA I exited early at a loss it had a run up through the pin and back down and touched. Stupid stupid stupid. Need to let these wide winged OTM have time to fly. Looking forward to next week and doing some sizing up. Maybe add a weekly net-liq screen shot. Can't decide on that or not.
Week 14 - Update Entered the following flies on 4/22 will exit all on expiration day tomorrow ABNB 3:6:3 170-185-200 calls bot @ $2.65 SPY 3:6:3 403-408-413 puts bot @ $1.18 AAPL 5:10:5 130-135-140 calls bot @ $1.93 PTON 8 x 97-100-103 iron fly sold @ $@2.17 FUTU 2:4:2 115-125-125 puts bot @ $2.85 SQ 3:6:3 245-255-265 calls bot @ $2.31 W 2:4:2 290-300-310 puts bot @ $3.16 NFLX 7:14:7 495-500-505 puts bot @ $0.96 TSLA 1:2:1 720-750-780 calls bot @ $7.05 RIOT 3:6:3 35-45-55 calls bot @ $2.39 GSX 7:14:7 26-30-34 calls bot @ $1.07 GME 6:12:6 145-150-155 calls bot @ $1.10 Sizing up put around 3% of net liq into play on these flies. See what tomorrow brings. Exited a soybean fly at scratch went long a contract as it went through my distant wing sold it at a profit and scratched the fly. Beans are a bouncing. potential expiration straddle play in soy tomorrow. Starting balance: $250,000 will update percentages up or down each week with new net liq. Week one of the new adventure. A little nervous but all defined risk flies.
Week 14 Update - Tally Totals ABNB 3:6:3 170-185-200 calls bot @ $2.65 sold @ $5.50 +$975 SPY 3:6:3 403-408-413 puts bot @ $1.18 sold @ $0.29 -$267 AAPL 5:10:5 130-135-140 calls bot @ $1.93 sold @ $2.75 +$410 PTON 8 x 97-100-103 iron fly sold @ $@2.17 bot @ $2.00 +$126 FUTU 2:4:2 115-125-125 puts bot @ $2.85 bot @ $0.46 -$478 SQ 3:6:3 245-255-265 calls bot @ $2.31 sold @ $0.60 -$513 W 2:4:2 290-300-310 puts bot @ $3.16 sold @ $4.00 +$168 NFLX 7:14:7 495-500-505 puts bot @ $0.96 sold @ $1.50 +$378 TSLA 1:2:1 720-750-780 calls bot @ $7.05 sold @ $14.47 +$742 RIOT 3:6:3 35-45-55 calls bot @ $2.39 sold @ $2.50 +$33 GSX 7:14:7 26-30-34 calls bot @ $1.07 sold @ $0.90 -$119 GME 6:12:6 145-150-155 calls bot @ $1.10 sold @ $1.30 +$120 total p/l +$1,575 commissions 198 true p/ +$1,377 +0.5% Percent winning trades 8/12 or 66% Take Away Overall I'm happy with week one performance trading with a higher net liq. I only put 3 percent into play with these flies I was more patient with some giving them more time to open than others Was nervous about trading with more size but really all fills were fine except a partial when I legged out of GSX. No big deal upped it a penny and hit. Will now sit in cash till next Thursday to put on some more one day expiration flies. Tried to split the allocation to around $700 per fly of risk and then had a hedge on with a spy fly. Noting commissions kind of sucks with this but it is what it is. Maybe Tom and Tony will send me some free shit from Tasty Works.
Week 15 - Flies Entered 4/29 to exit 4/30 MRNA 2:4:2 175-190-205 calls bot @ $3.84 NVDA 1:2:1 605-625-645 calls bot @ $7.04 DASH 2:4:2 150-165-180 calls bot @ $2.74 PTON 5 X 96-100-104 iron fly sold@ $2.13 QS 3:6:3 35-40-45 calls bot @ $2.40 SPY 6:12:6 410-415-420 puts bot @ $0.76 BLNK 7:14:7 37-40-43 calls bot @ $1.12 MARA 10:20:10 35-40-45 calls bot @ $0.76 NVAX 3:6:3 235-250-265 calls bot @ $2.85 GME 1:2:1 175-200-225 calls bot @ $5.15 W 2:4:2 310-330-350 calls bot @ $3.75 FB 4:8:4 310-320-330 puts bot @ $1.89 ROKU 2:4:2 340-350-360 puts bot @ $3.18 TSLA 1:2:1 680-700-720 calls bot @ $5.22 capital utilization 3%
Week 15 - Final Updates MRNA 2:4:2 175-190-205 calls bot @ $3.84 sold @ $7.00 + $632 NVDA 1:2:1 605-625-645 calls bot @ $7.04 sold @ $7.00 -$4 DASH 2:4:2 150-165-180 calls bot @ $2.74 sold @ $1.16 -$316 PTON 5 X 96-100-104 iron fly sold@ $2.13 bot @ $1.75 +$190 QS 3:6:3 35-40-45 calls bot @ $2.40 sold @$2.96 +$168 SPY 6:12:6 410-415-420 puts bot @ $0.76 sold @ $1.84 +$648 BLNK 7:14:7 37-40-43 calls bot @ $1.12 sold @$1.69 +$399 MARA 10:20:10 35-40-45 calls bot @ $0.76 sold @$2.00 +$1240 NVAX 3:6:3 235-250-265 calls bot @ $2.85 sold @$6.00 +$945 GME 1:2:1 175-200-225 calls bot @ $5.15 sold @$3.68 -$147 W 2:4:2 310-330-350 calls bot @ $3.75 sold @$0.60 -$630 FB 4:8:4 310-320-330 puts bot @ $1.89 sold @$2.80 +$364 ROKU 2:4:2 340-350-360 puts bot @ $3.18 sold @ $5.34 +$432 TSLA 1:2:1 680-700-720 calls bot @ $5.22 sold @ $9.50 +$428 put on an /ES fly in puts overnight up $150 and exited total week p/l: +$4,499 commissions -$200 total +$4,299 Profitable trades 11/15 overall account performance strategy ytd: +2.1% Take Away: A good week. Feels very good. Nice p/l Used SPY fly as a hedge added one in /ES in overnight as nervous things would collapse. Thinking more balanced next week between put and call flies Out early in the day maybe should have waited on some but I liked the green screen and cashed out.
I set them with a directional bias based on the strike with the highest open interest going into expiration. Usually place the first wing ATM or slightly ITM.