Weekly ES Signals

Discussion in 'Journals' started by OddTrader, Sep 24, 2011.

  1. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=213261

    Now finalised this system. All trades are hedged with options.

    The above weekly ES signals (based on SPY prices) have also been revised as follows:

    Wk 03Jan2011 Short 1257.5;
    Wk 10Jan2011 Short 1271.4;
    Wk 17Jan2011 Long 1292.9;
    Wk 24Jan2011 Short 1283.8;
    Wk 31Jan2011 Short 1277.0;

    Wk 07Feb2011 Long 1311.5;
    Wk 14Feb2011 Short 1331.3;
    Wk 21Feb2011 Short 1345.1.

    Historically its average WinRate was about 55%.
  2. In his book "Reading the mind of the market - The Alchemy of Finance", Soros says (page 143): 'I propose an experiment. I shall record the views that guide me in my investment decisions at the present time and I shall revise them on a real-time basis while the book is in preparation.'

    Here is my experiment.


  3. Excuse my ignorance regarding your hedging method. As an ES trader (as well as others) I always look to others methods keenly. Regards
  4. Here are some articles:

    Dynamic Hedging Strategies

    Five Hedging Strategies

    Hedging Strategies for Oil Producers

    Jet Fuel Hedging Strategies: Options Available for Airlines and a
    Survey of Industry Practices

    Hedging Currency Risks {
    Dynamic Hedging Strategies
    Based on O&A Trading Models

    "These are reasons to revise the hedging strategy from time to time , once every year or more
    frequently. Another reason arises from the progress in trading model development. O&A will
    make their new trading models and portfolios available for hedging after these have been successfully
    tested in-house."
  5. Always in the market:

    Last week:
    Short ES 1189.5 19Sep2011/26Sep2011.

    This week:
    Short ES 1137.0 26Sep2011/02Oct2011.
  6. Pekelo


  7. Is that your trading experience when using options to hedge a position?!


  8. Pekelo


    So instead of answering you quickly do a search on the inquiring poster? :)
    (and quote a completely irrelevant post from him?)

    The point is with hedging that you STILL have to time it right, when you remove the hedge, so would you mind answering the question?? How/when do you decide to close the positions and if you hedge it right, how do you make money?

    Oh my, I have just realized I haven't answered your question!! So yes, that is my experience, that if you hedge correctly, one position offsets the other, thus you don't make any money....
  9. You're probably right.
  10. Pekelo


    I am not picking on you, just genuinely interested how one is using hedging.

    Also, if the signals are good, why is hedging needed??? Wouldn't a stop loss do the job, just in case the signal didn't work???
    #10     Sep 26, 2011