Trading blind? The options market is blind. You don’t know where price is going, and neither does your vol surface. Price action comes first — volatility just chases it. I know where price is headed before you do, and before the options market adjusts.
Well whatever "model" you're running you start off by giving up 77 cents in edge bc of stupidity/indifference/TBI.
What are you talking about? You think your going to get 1.57 ATM put 10 dte? You'll be waiting a long time lol These are practically mechanical trades for car payments.
So just to clarify — you're saying vol is marked to the forward at 20.13 (basis Aug 15), but spot is trading 20.90, so the vol curve is pricing in a lower underlying, and therefore when I sell, I'm collecting premium based on that lower forward... meaning I'm giving up 0.77 in edge? So in your view, that 77 cents is pure inefficiency — not just theoretical — and it translates directly into a worse fill if I’m not adjusting for the forward? Just want to make sure I’m not missing something, because unless the vol curve is stale or I’m blindly selling without accounting for the spot/forward difference, I’m not sure where that 0.77 actually leaves my pocket.
Yes, you're blindly selling CALLS when the fwd is 77 cents lower than cash, but you're pricing against cash. Therefore there is no vol-line you won't short bc your "intuition" thinks it's a short. The Aug 22C are 25x50 cents. The Aug 20P are 95x110 cents. Cash is 20.9. Forward is 20.13 Wow! Those puts are bid! Those calls are cheap! Short the calls??? But ofc that's silly, but you're marking the options against the shares. You've admitted as much and ChatGPT agrees. The problem isn't the the vol is marked wrong (sic) but that your generic model/manual vol input/fwd = shares results in egregiously underpriced call marks and overpriced put marks. Result? There is no vol-line you won't short. Sure, it's really not misrepresented, but you don't know that fact. Blind w/o a cane. If you were actually trading delta you would never hit your mark on PNL bc you're so far off on the MTM. MSTY is 20.9 and you need 21.5 (shares). You think that you need 0.6 trading the options but the vol is marked against a 20.13 figure.
Not sure how we ended up on MSTY — I sold puts on BITX, HUT and MARA. And just to be clear: are you criticizing my spreadsheet or my actual fills?