I am not certain, but I remember reading in a couple places about an 800 pt gap in the yen, with Soros frantically telling his traders not to exit and that he would "take on" their positions.
In 1997 the yen fell 20 big figures in about 24 hours due to unwinding of carry trades. Sound familiar? ( It wasn't techincally a gap but it sure was illiquid.) Also in 1992 sterling gapped about 10 big figures on a Thursday night when it devalued.
This is a danger / opportunity which is looming today also. Do you remember what was the event that triggered this unwiding? Many traders seem to forget what happened just a few years ago, thus the history has a clear tendency of repeating itself...
Agreed, that is why I said, sound familiar! Not say it will happen but sure looks similar. You know who caused it last time - Soros liquidating yen positions after LTCM collpased. This time of year as well. And the IMM is huge long dollars, short yen
I completely disagree that this is a danger. Yes, the market may move massively in a very short time, but the FX market is possibly 10 000 times more liquid today than it was 10 years ago. Therefore, the risk of any sizeable gap on major pairs is now about zero.
Why would you ever make this assumption? How will it help you make money, in believing an outlier move can "never" happen in the market you trade? It can only hurt you, and in the worst possible way.
There's about 48 hours between Friday's close and Sunday night's open and the world changes during that period. Same reason why the stock market doesn't open each day at the prior day's close.