Fairly shortly girls and boys! all technicals indicate we are going down .... Fundementals show we'r going down. s&P 1370 got shanked! dow 1380 - 1390 febennaci retracement from the top got shanked!
No one believes that the market is headed lower than the March lows, they think everything is rosy, sad to think that everyone thinks this is still the bull market.
that quote must be from a trader. most of these guys who make these post are peon's. even though no one can really prove it; why not say what trade you are putting on based on your bias? i went long on es on friday @ 1360 with 1370 in mind. anyone else? also, the way some here spell tells me much.
So many on ET constantly posting and HOPING AND PRAYING we go down hard. The 'pessimist' to 'optimist' ratio (here on the board, from people that post) must be 1:5. Is it more 'chic' to be a bear? Maybe it makes one look more intellectual? Is money made on the short side worth more in your pocket or just psychologically than profits that come from closing out profitable long positions?
No! Most people here are bearish because the fundamentals are complete dogshit. I've been a trader since 1987, and an economist since before that, and I have NEVER seen a worse situation than this. The only reason we had such a robust bear market rally is because the FED kept lowering rates (which it can't do anymore), and because earnings expectations were set ridiculously low. We are most definitely going down soon, probably well below the previous lows. Yes, we will have some bounces along the way, and I am not saying we crash Monday (although it is possible). My prediction is that by year end, we are well below these recent lows. I would bet the perma bulls here such as stock_trader and hedgefund have never seen a bear market, and listen to Kudlow. Why do I say this? Cause things can't get much worse. And by the way, most economists believe we are in a recession now. Only the government uses that stupid two quarters of contraction bullshit. Five months in a row of job losses when you need over 100k gains per month just to keep up with population growth is an obvious indicator. Major pain by nearly every retailer other than Walmart says a bit as well. Jay
I agree with the trader/economist. There has never been this many fundamentals pressing down on the American economy. We got an artificial boost from the housing bubble as the dollar weakened but we didn't feel it as China delivered cheap goods from low payed workers. That's now turned into China exporting inflation as it gobbles up anything it needs.