people are fcking brain dead. when we had 5% treasury yes the 'normal' p/e is 15 whatever... now we have 0% rates.... where else are you gonna get returns... just answer the fcking question. fair p/e is 50. minimum. use the brain and think for 30 seconds please.
I thought market would be weak until the death rate stops falling. Even with Fed intervention. So you're short here?
We have only seen unemployment up to March 21, 2020. Things only started shutting down in most places last week. Most Americans only have savings to last 1 to 2 weeks. 1-2 weeks from the shutdown puts us at the beginning of April, i.e., rent, building leases, etc. due. Firms are still buying the dip on futures with brokers not requiring enough margin for taste. It's pretty plain to see; open a chart on Bloomberg or IB (assuming you have market data) and look at the volume on a granular level for each individual contract. Contracts have been bought at 10,000s at a time intermittently resulting is 9 figure positions that can be obliterated delta neutrality be damned. That went out the window a while ago. 2008ish Brian Hunter - Amaranth Advisors - Gas Futures -$6.5bn loss Jérôme Kerviel - Société Générale - European index futures - $6.95bn loss Howie Hubler - Morgan Stanley - CDS - $8.67bn Boaz Weinstein - Deutsche Bank - $1.74bn loss etc. They'll do it again and again and again. It doesn't matter what safeguards are place in normal times, people loose their heads in times like these. They think the market has reached bottom and go all in on one side. 2020 Ronin MFA soon to be more. June contracts will come due and even more firms will go belly-up. The pension unfunded liabilities in California is anywhere from $990bn to $1.3 trillion. States can't print money. California only makes around $151 billion in tax revenue. There has been a net exodus of people leaving the state (only their not), they are becoming residents of Nevada or somewhere else like Wyoming, or South Dakota, but remaining California; thus, draining services. The average income of the family that fake-leaves the State is $213K, while the average income of the family that enters is around $35K. People make the argument that everybody wants to go to California and New York. This is true; however, those people are low-income or grey economy workers that can hide income from taxation through tips and the like. So while California's tax paying base is indeed increasing, the taxbase is shrinking. The tax base has been shrinking for the past 15 years except for random years in between. Add insult to injury about the coronavirus. The IRS will be drowning in red ink.
If inflation starts picking up, fed will finally have to raise interest rates and that will send housing prices down. But I agree.....if you can get good cash flowing real estate in this environment, it would be a good long term investment.
If you think a 50 P/E is fair, good on you. That still doesn't change the fact that you are going to see bankruptcies skyrocket as debt-laden corporations struggle to refinance debt. That means your 50 P/E stock is headed straight to zero. Where am I putting my money? Cash, precious metals and precious metals mining.