Look at how much selling volume there is. This happened just before the downgrade, just before the end of September, just before June 2011. The only time this was reversed recently was in the middle of March last year (2011). No highs, at least not for very long....I'm betting a >50% chance it won't happen. I won't bet yet. Thoughts? My intention is to not be like grandstoupercycle or the others, just sharing thoughts on being in a minority on ET price prediction.
Heavy volume? I'm looking at the data. SP500 and DOW volume doesn't seem particularly high these past 2 weeks.
The mistake you're making is to think the market is rational or perhaps that it is not really manipulated by a collection of liars cheats and thieves (otherwise affectionately referred to as Goldman Sachs). This is an election year, therefore why wouldn't the market go to the moon before the Tuesday after the first Monday in November???
Interesting chart. Seems to portend more downward action. Look at a similar setup on the chart in the Nov timeframe. Triple top then a descent in Dec below 11400 before it rebounds to the 2012 new highs.
I can only see a possible regular h&s there. But it doesn't look right, for DIA the volume isn't declining (as it should for a good h&s). Triple top as head and the declining neckline aren't confirming either. I'm very bullish for the whole year.