Hmm the dollar is going to drop, making US exports MUCH cheaper and US imports more expensive so the US manufacturers can compete with the cheap Asian countries and make loadsof money.. I think that is the nub or your argument.. "The "ramp up" of US production is not an overnight affair and will take many months. In the interim unemployment will drop, inflation will start to surface, our external balances will start to harmonize, and US equity markets will shoot through the roof as traders and investors start to believe the hype" Now that's just fine and dandy.. so when an item is produced in China say with labour at $5 per hour the US will make it at $10 an hour? I think not. And do you think the oil producers will accept dollars for their oil when each dollar buys a LOT less? I think not.. And where is the money coming from to buy US treasuries because in case you have not noticed it the US has a chronic Federal deficit. ? As foreigners are not (cos you've trashed their dollar holdings) then the only alternative is the US taxpayer? I think not as he/she has a chronic spending deficit as well.. Souds like: voodoo economics..
Manufacturers are going to ramp up ops because of the notion that market share can be gained by favorable currency moves. I would also contend that higher interest rates and inflation is favorable to increased production and movement in the received indicators relevant to that sector because pricing power will be restored to many sectors. This also goes hand in hand with lower unemployment. This is but one of a few good reasons that I can think of but I am not going to let all of your thinking be done by me... As far as which sectors will take up the slack in the "employment surplus"... HMMMMMMMM, let me think for a moment! I have an idea but I will see if you can figure it out, brainiacs!
You need to get married, and then this type of statement will take on a whole new meaning each and everyday (possibly hour by hour) when you have a wife. This will then be "the real world," and not the BS from academia and the hot air they have built up in your brain. Good Luck!
Thats because it is voodoo economics. The funny thing is that I WAS SPEAKING IN GENERALITIES. I could go into greater detail but I WONT. I want yall to connect the lines because I already have. I have come to my conclusion. Build your own model/theory and then tell me your conclusions. I KNOW I AM RIGHT. I am like Mr.Market, I AM HUGE!!!!!!! Take my prognosis for what you will but just remember ONE THING>>> YOU HEARD IT HERE, FROM ME, F I R S T!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't dispute anything you are saying. As an econ grad myself, I understand your argument. But its statements like the above that make it hard for traders to take academia seriously. You mentioned that you were a trader and you are predicting the Dow, but you don't know what DIAmonds are. So I am assuming you won't be putting real money behind your predictions? Or were you going to do the more expensive thing and buy all 30 stocks? Sometimes the simple forest is missed for all the differential equation trees. I don't mean to be contentious, but since you seem pretty confident in yourself (as all academics rightly are due to the work they put in) then at least make sure you know what you are talking about before getting too prideful. The market has an uncanny way of punishing both ignorance and arrogance.
I just used this quote the other day but it really applies here. This is what Richard Nixon said about his economic advisors - "They aren't always right, but they are always sure."
"This is what Richard Nixon said about his economic advisors - "They aren't always right, but they are always sure."" In the UK we have a saying about economists(which I have generalised a little: " Ask 3 economists about any subject and you will get 6 opinions" to which I add:- " and they will all be wrong"