I am trying to catch a 2 or 3 StDev move (IV wise). Risk 5% to make 25, 50%. For this I need an event that brings volatility into the underlying otherwise it’s unlikely to move more than 1 StDev (whatever the DTE). That’s why I am playing earnings, because that’s the only events I am aware of that can make a stock move up (or down) multiple standard deviations. But the option traders aren’t stupid. It’s a known fact that there will be volatility so they mark up the price of the options. If the IV is too high relative to historical volatility then … even if the underlying goes up 4StDev, the option might only payoff even (1StDev). So I am looking for cheap options (relative to historical volatility) around key events. Usually I buy the day before the event and sell as soon as possible after the event. But it’s like sport betting … the close is the most efficient price. Buying long before the event is riskier but we can get better prices. Sometimes they front run on the underlying also. If they expect a beat … they’re going to pump the stock before the release. IV right now is 100%. Maybe on Feb 27th IV is going to be 150%. I don’t know but it’s not going to be lower. However the stock might only be trading at 35$ (lower) by then. That’s the risk. Could also be trading higher. I just think FUBO won’t go much lower (before earnings), that IV won’t go any lower (really low IV/HV) and … that it might beat expectations (or positive forward guidance) and move the option market by multiple StDevs. Which makes me willing to risk 5% to gain 25, 50%.
Yes I often talk about IV on a daily basis because that’s how I display it on my chart but I better use the annualized (best practice) one. Thanks for your support Glad I can help especially since it’s quite messy. I am myself still learning, trying stuffs.
Here we can see a bunch of stocks are moving multiple StDevs on a daily basis and for different reasons (sometimes None). But I don’t have private information and once the news become public it’s already too late (at least for the quick bucks). I just pray to find stonks making this list on which options aren’t too expensive (IV wise). Trump can give clues, earnings trend can give clues. Charts can give clues. Unusual options (vol/oi) ? Tea leaves ? I am not Sherlock but he should have tried option trading ! If we can make 2 or 3x on a binary events, that’s already pretty nice.
He is a great poster, one of the good guys on ET! But I prefer his unicorn avatar instead of this playboy bunny.
I admittedly went to sleep because this was more than I was ready to unpack at the time. You say you buy the day before the event and that owning an option days or weeks leading up to the event is like the sports betting market looking to find itself without all the news leading into the big game. I’m a good (maybe better then good) sports bettor so I appreciate that analogy and I have this to say in return: sports bets once placed don’t have theta. The reason I point this out is because yeah, you could see a lower than normal vol on an option a month out and yeah, the market could start bidding it up strictly on the basis of vol but Theta on the 21 day or less range burns like a flamethrower and I was just skeptical of the success of this. so I wonder, buying what seems be the shortest series available, would it be of more benefit to own vol for the sake of vol and then get the 45 day or greater series at cheap vol and pray for a sigma move? and what about delta hedging?