Around earnings, Option prices are dominated by IV Usually if you take the mean(abs(previous earning reactions)) you get the IV Here it's for WAY. We only had 2 earnings with 10.47% and 7.64% reactions. If input this as IV or Volatility with a DTE of 1 day then I more or less get the option prices. The ATM option should be worth half the expected move. That's WMT Shouldn't call 'Delta' delta but ... likelihood. Buy a 1StDev option and pray for a 2 (x5) or 3 (x11) StDev move (IV wise). That's tough though because even if the underlying is making a 4StDev move, The option traders might have priced the volatility and it become a 1StDev move. That's what happens around earnings and every expected events.
It's not interesting for an option buyer to trade when IV is high relative to HV or rank, percentile. Unless we buy ATM option and expect a 1:1 reward to risk (1StDev move). Because a 2, 3 or 4StDev move is very unlikely when IV is high. Becomes way more likelier when IV is <= HV. But without e(x) event the underlying might not move much. Unless we have private information Which we do not have of course. Conclusion: Buy OTM options on low IV/HV and pray for an unexpected event.
FUBO has low IV/HV FUBO has earnings on Feb 28. FUBO has an interesting chart. Implied move for earning is 9.81% or 155% annualized (252 days) Current IV is 100% or below historical average. Might be worth buying some 4.5$ Call @ 0.2 Even if the last 4 earnings were bearish
If we wanna try to 10x ... The 5$ call is the most interesting @ 0.1 Keeping in mind that 4.7$ is the conservative upper 1StDev. 2StDev is 5.33$, 3StDev is 5.97$, 4StDev is 6.60$ According to the 21 day 5% volatility (lowest) Anyway it could just plummet. No need to be a genius to 10x. Just some common sense and luck. I'll keep you updated I'll bid 5% of my account on 5$ calls @ 0.1 I'll lose below 5.1$ then sky's the limit. Might never get filled though. With some luck it pulls an NFLX
Alright. Thank you GPT What’s also interesting with FUBO is the RS against SPY over 12 months which is making new high even if it sucks on an absolute basis (Negative). I calc the RS as … Stock_ratio = mean(log(stock_returns)) / stdev(log(stock_returns)) Index_ratio = mean(log(index_returns)) / stdev(log(index_returns)) Stock_ratio - Index_ratio
According to the formula, If we incorporate the 9.81% avg earning move + the 21 day stdev then the annualized vol is 99% The market is fairly priced (on the low end) I'll be happy if I can have the 5$ strike @ 0.1
Sorry I didn't have the right formula then. What are you looking for ? The payoffs are timeframe agnostic. At expiration (intrinsic value) That's my thoughts. I am just another ET clown dabbling with options xD
Maybe I am misunderstanding. I thought you were taking a deviation of the stock price. If that were the case, you’d need to know how long you are measuring. Are you measuring volatility of a different parameter?
Sure but what are you referring to specifically ? Because I said a lot of things ^^ Yes to compute standard deviations we need the stock price, the volatility and the DTE. For each StDev I guessimate the option price which is the IV in dollars multiplied by the sigma’s probability. I’ve made a payoff matrix that holds across stock price, volatility and DTE because it’s expressed in terms of standard deviation. I talked about incorporating average earnings move into the IV calculation. I also talked about FUBO. Showed the relevant strike according to risk preferences (BE, x2, x5, …)