Lol. New all-time highs, round number (2200) and at the same time low volume and low relative strength? No weaknesses? Really? On a short term basis (less than one month), probabilities are high S&P would face at least a 5% correction, maybe 10%. And maybe we are "at the top", maybe not. Who cares. You make money now, and a small correction is enough to make money. You don't need to guess the top or the bottom. And if correction lasts, we are in a bear market, and you make even more money. Eganon and you still got a lot to learn. Like 95% of people here. I learned that even though markets look their very best when they are setting new highs, that is often the best time to sell. Paul Tudor Jones
BONDS AND GOLD!! Now I can't tell you that they will collapse like down 70% or whatever but entering a bear market for those is EXTREMELY LIKELY. No one knows exactly where the market will END on its trajectory. I am simply saying that the direction is definitely showing on the charts. I am predicting at least 20% drop on both bonds and gold from their recent highs. That places GOLD at a low of at least $1111.... another $100 lower than where we are now. So let's see who is right. If I am right and gold is going to $1111 why would I want to buy it at $1211. Again I agree that the current and past policies of the Fed and our governments will likely lead to future economic collapse and hyperinflation and Gold will likely skyrocket. In fact I have been buying gold for years since the collapse of 2007-2008. But I buy when I see an upturn in gold not when I see a downturn. You see as traders we buy low and sell high. Not buy high and sell higher. Can you make money buying high and selling higher? Sure, of course you can but why keep money tied up in something that is going down when you know there are other areas going UP. So far AssHat has not provided one shred of evidence for his bold call and what's worse he has been proven wrong every trading day since this thread was started. It's his arrogance and wanting to trade what he THINKS the market SHOULD do that will be his downfall. Again, put you money where your mouth is. But as I said before I suspect you do not even trade. I will go back to my closet now and order a pizza for the trading day is about to open.
Oh I MOST DEFINITELY have a lot to learn and I agree with you there will likely be a pullback. How far a pull back I don't know but definitely NOT 20%. I suspect 5% OR LESS from here. I will let The CHARTS tell me. In fact, I am 55% in cash waiting for a pullback now. I have said so for several days. But I have the belief that we are still going higher and will use pullbacks to reload on stocks and certain commodities I see going higher (NOT GOLD). By the way I have no shame in the fact it took me 4 years to learn to break even. It has taken me another 2 or so to learn to be profitable. How did you do with the recent surge in stocks? Did you see it coming and did you profit from it?
Post-trump, I bought some Russian and Brazilian stocks, few US stocks. That was fine but I must concede I wasn't enough optimistic. Now I am more and more cautious and wait for a good entry point in gold stocks. I think we are closer and closer every day, but I don't want to anticipate. CM
All points noted, thanks. Let's put it this way, as far as I understood it he made a macro top call, as in markets have topped and bear market is upon us. I am taking the counter approach, bull will remain. Most of your points made u've pretty much confirmed what I said, it isn't relevant to daily trading activities what may be around the corner. Welcome to the 95% in that case.
19000 was just set yesterday and they are talking about Dow 20000 today.. Wald sees the index hitting 20,000 in the first half of 2017. This would mark an accelerated pace for round numbers, given that the Dow first hit 18,000 in December 2014. Not only is the index breaking out, said Wald, but it's breaking out "with the right leadership." "This is very classic bull-market behavior. When the Fed starts to tighten interest rates, you have your mid-cycle correction — that's what we've had over the last year, the very wide gyrations — and now we're breaking out to the upside." If all 30 stocks in the Dow rose to analysts' median price targets, the Dow would be trading at about 20,065. Based on FactSet price target data, Apple would contribute the most gains to the Dow in that scenario, followed by Home Depot and Visa.
For those that are interested and in an attempt to put my neck on the line here I will post a SIMPLE and CRUDE method of determining market direction for Gold and S&P. I repeat this is NOT how I trade but a simple method to make sure you are not shorting when you should be buying and not buying when you should be shorting. Charts change daily and my current forecast is just that a CURRENT FORECAST. It could change but CURRENTLY I see gold going lower and stocks going higher and bonds going lower. Yes all of them have moved recently and the recent moves are possibly overdone so a pullback in the opposite direction is probable but those retracement should be used to SHORT Gold and BUY stocks. This SIMPLE and CRUDE method is determining market direction by following a 13 period simple moving average and whether MACD is rising and above the zero line or falling and below the zero line. If you follow those AND these charts ALL line up in the same direction on 3 TIME FRAMES AT THE SAME TIME you better heed what they are telling you. Currently, daily, weekly, monthly charts are all saying to go long stocks and go short gold. That makes this thread and AssHats other thread on BUY GOLD absolute bad advice CURRENTLY. We will see. But I am putting my head on the chopping block here and we will see who was more right. Of course anyone that looks at these charts will see there are times when they don't line up and times when the SMA 13 says go short and the MACD is still above zero. Well those are the nuances that took me years to figure out but the simplest method that a 5 year old can see is the one I describe above. TRADE WHAT YOU SEE NOT WHAT YOU WANT OR THINK THE MARKET SHOULD DO.
One article on cnbc says Dow 20000 in first half of 2017 and then you get articles like this a couple of hours apart: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/22/david-stockman-doubles-down-on-his-sell-everything-call.html This is the greatest suckers' rally of all time: David Stockman Brian Price | @PriceCNBC 3 Hours AgoCNBC.com PLAY VIDEO
Since we're into chart posting, here's SPX quarterly, where's the indication of a top? Last year there were clear technical signs of a potential reversal, what happened? Nothing. So before you state the problems of this world & how it's about to end take a good hard look at this chart, you are staring in the face of a mega inflation trend. Correction shmeaction whatever, I get this point, where is the bear market? Nowhere to be found.