We Have Topped

Discussion in 'Trading' started by GrandSupercycle, Jan 24, 2012.

  1. bc1

    bc1

    Here is the latest on your account. Negative 12.7% in last 30 days and negative 16.4% since inception. 2 years of no pay is correct.

    http://covestor.com/kc-capital-management/quantitative-etf
     
    #61     Jan 25, 2012
  2. Why do you guys think that that has anything to do with what I'm doing?

    It's a spec of time less than 7 months, and it's not the futures system I was referring to.

    I did have a profitable year with it last year, and it's only because the later half wasn't very good that it's even negative. I know it will turn positive before it's a year old by at least 30%.
     
    #62     Jan 26, 2012
  3. How do models make mistakes? They can't. They do what they're told to do, and as far as I'm concerned, winning a World Cup is all I need to do.

    Sometimes it's not what you make, it's what you don't lose, and there are 10's of models down a lot more than mine trading similarly aggressive instruments without quantitative analysis that have lost more than 20%.
     
    #63     Jan 26, 2012
  4. If you win a contest with real money on the line, I'll become a believer. I assume you mean that famous World Cup (although I haven't followed it in at least a decade).

    But BC1 is right to be skeptical as are the rest of us. The problem is you use "big numbers" with these hypothetical models and then the one program that anybody has any access to is down double digits. What is everyone supposed to believe when you throw around all of your arcane terminology and outlandish profit projections?
     
    #64     Jan 26, 2012
  5. The real results do not have enough trades to say anything about it. It hasn't been profitable since I started, but that doesn't change what its hypothetical figures are that I refer to that seem to get lost in translation between what a futures strategy is and how that is different than my model on Covestor.

    They aren't related, and I expect to win that this year. Ignoring these kinds of statistics is why economic growth is stagnating. We have cheap money but unless you're already worth $1 million no one will loan you $1 million so without seeking private equity there's no way to raise it, and trying to raise capital when you don't have any is more like being on the runway than worrying about making real time trading decisions.

    Does making 39% in two days on collective2 mean anything? No, probably not, but that's showing that I know when to go on tilt, and this month I didn't.
     
    #65     Jan 26, 2012
  6. Wrong.

    Gold rose. Dollar Fell. Euro rose. Markets continued their rise after a morning correction. All happened just as the interest rate announcement occured.

    This is a direct reaction to a renewed bias in favor of higher inflation.
     
    #66     Jan 26, 2012
  7. TILT2

    TILT2

    It's been three days! How brilliant you are, Grand!
     
    #67     Jan 26, 2012
  8. GrandSupercycle 01-23-12
    " EURUSD reverts to falling wedge scenario (bullish) which is in conflict with very overextended SP500 / DOW "

    USD suppression dominates once again but bearish SP500 long term chart won't change and a worse stock crash is now guaranteed.
    [​IMG]
     
    #68     Jan 26, 2012
  9. GBPJPY leg down commences.
     
    #69     Jan 26, 2012
  10. bc1

    bc1

    Just to be fair to BWOL, here are is C2 accounts below. Everyone should note that Covestor and C2 are all PAPER money. I'm not sure which one of the Mr. Bwol is talking about, the one that is negative 25.5% and has some life to it or this new 7 week old system that only has 2 lucky trades which are not enough to base any projections on. However according to all the systems shown as indicators, the new one will be negative once it has some trading life to it.

    Be advised that Mr. Bwol is a salesman advocating and trying to attract people to buy into his systems for a large amount of money. It would be my advice not to do so.

    http://collective2.com/cgi-perl/system/*****ports.mpl?report_type=byvendor&system_id=68858255
     
    #70     Jan 26, 2012