Maybe go back to changing your mind each day - issuing two completely contradictory opinions the same day and then declaring victory should help with your self-esteem issues.
Wake up, Beau! Most of the jump in the NAS100 occurred moments after the AAPL announcement end of day Tuesday (EST). This announcement did cause a big jump, however this jump sold off for most of the morning until the FED announcement at 12:30pm EST on Wednesday. This was a new jolt to the NAS100 which drove it back up again. At the same time, both GOLD and the EURO jumped up and the USD fell. This jump, selloff, and resurgance after the FED announcement is much more noticeable in the S&P than it is in the NAS100. Check 4:00 EST Tuesday, 12:30PM Wednesday. This is also obvious in the chart for AAPL. All of the spike up occured after hours on Tuesday. During regular trading hours AAPL sold off. AAPL had no positive impact on the NAS100 during the day on wednesday; it was entirely a FED announcement story!! The simple reality is that as long as the FED continues to keep interest rates low together with other types of quantitative easing, fear of inflation pressure will continue. This is bearish for the USD, and supports EUR. It also supports and likely will drive up the price of gold with respect to USD. Furthermore, because US stock markets are priced in USD, stock prices need to compensate for the lowering value of the USD. This is bullish for US equities. However, if new panic sets in, all bets are off.
reverting to the uptrend with healthy selling. looking at 1375 as the earliest resistance level. break that level, the market will start its rally to ~1500 level.
I suspect an alternate personality. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=235473&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
I'd be very surprised to see the market break 1400. But if managers are chasing this rally and shorts are covering, we very well may break it, creating a significant short squeeze to 1500. That is all easily possible. The dollar index has been bouncing since August 2011 due to the outflows from the Euro, commodities and the stock market. Bonds are slightly coming off highs but without a significant correction from the blast higher when the Fed announced its plan to buy. The fed did not announce a new purchase program yet bonds remain consolidated near highs. Job market stagnant. Housing sector not improving. China potentially slowing... There is no reason for the market to make new highs other than a potential short squeeze and the market is ground higher in light volume. Smart money is waiting for the morons to buy 1450 or higher. Smart money will sell to them, the market will snap lower, and the market will return to its range. It feels to me as is AAPL is leading the market higher via the QQQQ, which has been outperforming the S&P. The market can just as easily collapse from this current area, since no one in their right mind should buy 1400. We are sideways, and potentially approaching the 2nd leg of a bear market. ------------ And so rather than predict the 2 potential outcomes (failure at resistance or short squeeze beyond 1400) I'd rather say that the short after the blast beyond 1400 is a strong sell. In my long term account I am still 5/6 cash and 1/6 stocks after bailing before the recent correction. I did NOT aggressively buy the dip. I just slowly added some money to stocks after the market bottomed. If we blast up I'll sell that small portion and think about the potential dip in bonds. ------------ The really interesting thing is.... with the market where it is, and the economic data where it is..... if things did improve..... it looks like we could test 07 highs, which makes absolutely no sense! Hell, right now we are nearing 08 highs, as if the market shrugged off the entire mortgage crisis! I have to think this entire bounce from 08 lows is a combination of hope and a natural inverse-correction of an overstretched 08 sell off. Due to the sluggish speed of the economic recovery, I expect a sideways market with ups and downs for quite some time (years) with bear market potential. I expect an eventual sell off to S&P 1000, even if it is just for a day. I am a big time buyer down at S&P 1000, which is exactly why it may not reach there. I missed the buy on the dip because 1000 was my target, it was too good of a target to be true. Though, I still think a nice news nugget can make the move happen. A break of 1000 would be intense. ---------------------------- I'm not sure what the bulls are thinking, trying to take us past 08 highs... But whatever, let them hold their noses and buy. I guess it could also be a bet on the complete destruction of.... the dollar? Sure, I could buy into that, but also into the destruction of the Euro.... But would that really prove well for stocks? Buy gold? Buy land? What gains value in the event of an economic meltdown? Just shorting I suppose. I don't know really. Either way, I repeat 1. Sell the blast past 1400, the market needs to shake everyone out to go lower. 2. Buy S&P 1000 unless there are signals of an apocalypse lol. The S&P is not worth any less imo.
Interesting. A lot of what you're saying is correct. Strangely enough though, as a trader, I am trying as hard as I can to trade CURRENT market activity. The FED keeps patching and supporting this sand castle even as the waves try to pull it down. That's why I'm bullish. I don't know when any of this is going to break; I only know that the FED continues to prop up the markets. So, I enjoy the ride while I can, and will try to be ready when it finally collapses.