Do you see 500 on S & P? It could happen for sure. But if it does it will not be straight to that level IMHO.
I like the call on fastmoney about the fed pushing through an absurdly large buy order of index futures. Apparently, the guys in the S &P pits saw this occur the day after the 87 crash. The morning after that bloodletting was shaping up the same way and then BAM! Insane buy order gets executed to the suprise of everyone, and off the market went, short covering, and bidding through the roof. It'll probably happen again....soon. That could put in a nice, textbook V bottom, and put us in a nice support level.
iceman TA and floors mean squat in this kind of market. There is still nothing but a black void in interbank lending, the huge deleveraging, etc. etc. No one is any closer to knowing whether this is Depression 2. The Dow could hit 3000. It is already down 40%, and has shown NO sign of stopping. 687 down today? does that look like slowing? Valuations, P/E, and all the other CNBC noise has zero use right now. Oil went from $147 to $85 in HOW long? It could be $50 or lower, if we are facing 2-4 years of severe recession or worse. Houses would have to fall another 20-30% from here JUST to get them back on the normal longterm growth patter before the last 7 insane years of growth. Think Las Vegas, all over the country. The number of houses underwater could double or triple... Where will the economy be then? The world governments are firing silver bullets, when we need diamond encrusted platinum bullets.
Well let's not get emotional and see what happens. I have said 7900- 8200 will be a floor. Let's watch and see. Like you said emotions and momentum could take it lower. But this is LT support. When there is a panic it always seems like it will continue. Look at oil. People swore on their mother's graves that it would NEVER go lower for years. Look what happened. This is no different although I agree things look bleak, but that is not why there is sellling IMHO. It is panic and fear. regards
sold most OIH puts today ! BAM!!!!!!!!! looking at OIH calls folks - come on in! (back to my day job for now)
7900-8250 WILL BE the st floor! It may be re-tested. But remember when things are terrible any hint of good news is welcomed and counter-traded while any bad news is often discounted unless totally not expected!
10-09-08 06:47 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from NY_HOOD: and what floor would that be ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- the floor WILL be 7900-8250! Take it to the bank...