If you buy stocks now, you will suffer for a long time after this recent run up. TXN was at 23-24 range and no one was buying it and I was calling it a buy. Now at 26.90, it is a great sell. Many tech stocks are like that. We will have some great pullbacks.
most likely, yes. But I would think after the election. Would you agree? Our do you think October will be weak, as is typical?
I am hearing tech companies' revenue will not be good in Q1 which starts in a month. So most companies if they announce good report for this Q, they won't have a good outlook for Q1. We did not have a DDR and we don't have a rosy economy. It is still sluggish and big sell-off will start anytime soon. Maybe even after a good news. TXN buy back news and increase of one penny to the devidend is a kind of cover for not a good Q1.
We are faced with the old problem of when. I know that I chronically make the mistake of being too early. I have to learn patience and realize that moves such as pullbacks, or corrections, nearly always take longer to develop than I have anticipated. At the moment this market has the look of wanting to go up no matter what. If we stay in this mode until the election I'll be sorely tempted to get out of everything the week before the election and then see what happens. Same as I would if I didn't want to hold through an earnings report. It seems the odds of being left behind by big rally on the heels of the election, assuming we continue to inch up until November, would be pretty slim. We could pullback to 1050-60 early october and still have time to make it to 1200 by first Tuesday in November. I'm shy on tech stocks at the moment, but based on your comments I don't think I'll be buying them right now anyway.
Everybody has thought we'd tank since the market started going back up in March 2009. For 2 years all you guys have been preaching the market was going down and I also believed it. But its finally time to let go. The worst is behind us, eveyrthing is priced in. Markets will recover, and we'll be back to 12,000 Dow in no time. there's no double dip recession coming.
Wiesman, I'm inclined to go along with your view. I expected an uncharacteristic strong Sept and Oct and said so back in August, but I also expected the August lows to drop further than they did. Now it seems there are several factors that should continue to put upward pressure on the market. These would be a weakening dollar, which the Fed seems to have no current interest in holding up, and continued downward pressure on long term interest rates via the Feds announced intention to use the proceeds from their mortgage related holdings to buy Treasury bonds. That action will hold down rates and at the same time pump money into the economy. With all the stimulus activity that results it seems the market can be buoyed up, at least for the time being. Whether there will be any real gains in constant dollars remains to be seen. But I expect the nominal value of the S&P to continue rising at least until the election. There still seems to be a lot of short interest as many just can't believe that the market can rise in the face of a dreadful (in real terms) economy. Those folks that are holding short going into October, normally a very weak month, might be in big trouble. Today (Friday) was interesting because the usual market internals (breadth, A/D, Vix, /DX, etc.) all suggested we should go higher yet the market dropped to fill the overnight gap (no surprise there) but than just went into idle just as if someone was holding the clutch down. Sooner or later, maybe next week, the market will move, and if it is down I won't trust the move, because we should break higher from here, not lower.