We are entering a Bull Market! Why? B.c. ET members (dumb money) is overly bearish

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by monty21, Jul 26, 2009.

  1. My concept is very simple... not to be disrespectful or anything, but a public forum of "traders" is representative of dumb money. The vast majority of ET members remain extremely bearish even in light of this recent earnings season rally. Don't fight the tape!

    I for one do think that the economic situation is very bad... unemployment is high, money supply is out of control (hence a weak dollar), people are still losing their homes/defaulting, there's no stability in the price of crude oil, exceptionally low consumer confidence, etc. But I will disprove myself by saying this... the stock market is a leading indicator whereas all of these criteria are mainly laggards.

    Secondly, I'm going to treat myself to a history lesson. There have been so many "dooms day" aka the world is coming to an end predictions, and ALL have been wrong. We suffer recessions every decade, so what makes this so different? Perhaps it's "worse" than most other recessions, but it is what it is. No two times are identical. Booms and busts are part of the game. While it looks like the world is coming to an end, history shows that these bubbles happen all the time.

    I was a bear too, until recent price action proved me wrong. Call them bear rallies or whatever you wish but I'm not fighting the tape. There is plenty of money left on the sidelines to sustain this move. Price action, price action, price action. Dow is above 9000 and S&P approaching 1000 from the 650 lows. Call it whatever you want, but someone is buying.... And it's not ET members, but institutions.

    These past two weeks have been exceptional... even with lower expectations on earnings. Nasdaq was up 12 days in a row! 12 days! Would've been another day had MSFT not disappointed.
  2. I agree, start buying now, I'm loading up 3-6 month leveraged long plays this week. Next stop, Dow 10,000
  3. I am hoping you convince lots of other people to get long because it will make the trip back down that much more interesting. I have traded since 1986 and i will admit that fighting the tape is a sure way to the poor house but I think that there is still some ugly downside ahead. I will trade the long side with a watchful eye.

    Cheers and good trading to all
  4. Might be looking too much at the doomsday threads. There's an actual poll asking what next week's action will be, and the most votes are on the most bullish of the predictions.
    Maybe next week will be down? :p
    Either way, just based on that, the doomsayers are posting, but the "silent majority" looks more bullish.
  5. We have seen something in the past few years called a "jobless" recovery.

    Well, in order for this market to go places, we are going to have to see THE MOTHER OF ALL JOBLESS RECOVERIES.
  6. trendy


    Care to make a friendly bet on whether the S&P 500 closes the year lower than Friday's close?
  7. This thread is a oxymoron, your post is in public forum after all. Market doesn't give rat's ass about people's opinions either in public or private.
  8. aegis


    This is a fallacy.

    Your summation is correct in that the public is generally on the wrong side of the market. However, they're typically wrong when it comes to timing, and not necessarily direction.
  9. donnap


    Hmmm...based on your post, then, the top is in.

    Based on my post... more upside. Hmmm...
  10. [​IMG]



    #10     Jul 27, 2009