Too many variables. It might be not enough antibodies to fire the test ?? But enough for immunity, or just needs longer for the antibodies to build up ?? well it's =>13% how much greater, no way to tell. Sweden without lockdowns is the best model to study, when the cases start coming down, it won't be, but that might be lockdown, it'll be over the hill. From that we can then gauge how big the hill is.
Spain, Italy and Germany look over the hill, but lockdowns which may or may not work unless done very early on. Wait and see when they ease lockdowns +3 weeks.
Guys, we have one-third of the known Covid cases in the world and one-fourth of the total known fatalities but we are only 4% of the population. To say the federal response has been a disaster is a historical understatement. We are being run like a third world country right now, right in front of your eyes.
Sweden has only 10.2 m people. For this population they can get over it for a few weeks max month. That what they did. However majority of their nursing homes elderly people died. Small countries will handle it much easier. Look Dutch, Denmark. When you have over 50m like yours that is much bigger trouble.
Agree, however where ours local and state government, where ours health experts. We lost two months to prepare. For fatalities China numbers multiply 15-20 times more will be right numbers. We did very bad however that is all parties, local, state, fed fault. Greedy big corps transfer all essentials to China. And now we are climbing into 25% unemp Depression.
You can scale for the population. Spread will take similar time, although massive area and small population, just close remote towns nobody in or out till it's over. NYC and UK London are 99% over the hill, London got there very quickly about 10days ahead of the rest of the UK, that's everyone crammed into tube trains for you.
Remember it's a WORLD Depression, everyone else is going to drag everyone lower with them, even sweden will suffer from everyone else being wrecked. Makes Brexit look like a walk in the park, that was going to mess up the UK enough, with this, bankrupt UK if money was real I guess.
In this case I would disagree. Look small countries make it much better, easier, smarter. You are right, for make country as regions, but you have to introduce set of rules and regulations between regions. We did not do it. So we are a big country with greater impact.