He says in the interview that he lost a lot of money, was that trading or after he gave trading up? By the way the book is good.
there is a inherent personality to each derivative in terms of price action. The macro and micro price structure/(fractal) pattern. This price action implies a unified force, with trend and countertrend moves that hold within certain ranges or volatility.
I agree. Totally. Wheat made similar moves in 2002, 2006 and now. It faded each time. I'm also cognizant that if too many participants are short in anticipation of this pattern repeating, I'm toast. Much of my hypothesis deals with commodity prices breaking out to unfathomable heights ala' your copper trade. Or like the 1970's. Imploding assets coupled with $100 oil and $7 Corn, ect. Hence I'm VERY nervous about counter trend shorts in Grains. This is perhaps the first time in my life that I've traded grains from the short side. The irony of perma bull Pabst getting hammered on the short Wheat portion of a C/W spread is on my mind.