Thank you Longhorns. Coming from a pro like yourself that trades them up, day-in and day-out, means a lot to me. You and Pabst are the only reasons that I have continued to check in on ET. Again, thanks.
Quote from Landis82: You obviously have little insight. PTJ used Elliott Wave in a most successful manner. I should know, I worked for him early on in my career in NYC. Elliott Wave, while prone to all sorts of interpretations and alternate counts becomes pretty darn precise after a 4th Wave correction ( which is what we just had recently into the late June low ). I have never claimed that the theory is infallible or completely precise/accurate in "real-time". However, I do know that given the move that we have had, we are now entering a phase where there are no more alternates and only one outcome. As a result, the "structure" of the market is becoming increasingly defined. As I stated two days ago, I felt that the market was simply testing a .618% fib level down to roughly 1503.50 and would make a low within a day or two. Turns out that the 1506 area was all the market needed to make that low. No insight? I said complaints would follow but evidence would be in short supply. "I worked with someone who..." or "I know someone who" is not evidence, statistically is it considered anecdotal or testimonial. Where is the published track record? The indedendently-monitored results? Even something as questionable as the broker statements over a considerable period of time? Saying it becomes pretty darn precise after the 4th wave is completely unsubstantiated. Saying "there is only one outcome" is downright humorous. If it doesn't work out, you will be quiet, if it does, you pat yourself on the back. Again, there will be more quacking and anger and support of the idea and the poster(s), but substantiable evidence will remain in short supply.
Paul Tudor Jones' track-record is readily availible. I suggest that you take it upon yourself to do your OWN homework and research his independently audited results. If you don't believe in his use of Elliott Wave ( or mine for that matter ) simply do everyone a favor and ignore this thread. No one is forcing you to read it. Funny how there are so many threads on ET without any substantiation or technical illustration of a specific methodology used whatsoever; just a lot of hot air being blown about by sizeable egos, and yet you choose to find fault with someone that has actually provided some of the methodology for illustration, not too mention specific targets. Perhaps you might be better off "critiquing" the "S&P Has Topped And It's The End of The World" threads. I'm sure that there is a TON of substantiation in those threads for you to filter thru. Good luck to you.
My understanding was that PTJ used various techniques, not just EWT. But I don't know the guy, just repeating what I heard somewhere. On another note, you evidently have an initial target of 1559, a mere 12 points above where we closed (I'm assuming you're talking cash here). So as a trader do you waiting for that 1559? Or do you get short now, thinking that 12 is pretty close? Just wondering how you would trade this type of analysis. OldTrader
Landis, I'm looking forward to your assessment after today, Thursday 12 July 2006. When are you targeting the corrective phase? In any event, for those of us sitting on remarkable profits in our 401K's since October 2006, isn't it safe to say that the risk:reward ratio as of today favors cash, or at a minimum taking money off the table and perhaps an allocation shift? Excellent work, by the way. John
OK, clever man Interview with Paul Tudor Jones in 2000: http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/Paul-Tudor-Jones-interview.html Not a single mention of Elliott Wave, which you seem to purport is the center of his investment being, even when he is asked questions such as: Q: How would you describe your general investment philosophy? Q: What's your competitive advantage as a trader? Q: Do you have any specific catalysts that you're looking for? Q: Is there more risk in the stock market now than ever before? Q: Can you comment on the life of your fund's returns since you began investing? Q: What are some perceptions and priorities of yours that have changed over the years? Q: Are you more naturally bearish or bullish? EW is not presented as his guiding principle, but rather, many other well accepted principles, including proper money management and risk assessment. I think the person who needs to do the homework is the person who speaks with foot in mouth. Again, people defend these things, they "know people" who do these things, but the evidence remains elusive. Now, about this track record and evidence which you think you have offered?