Wave Five Target = 1559.09

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Landis82, Jul 9, 2007.

  1. Adding the length of Wave 1 ( 74.91 ) to the Wave 4 low at 1484.18 obtains a "measured-move" target of equality at 1559.09

    This will be the end of a five wave sequence and the market will then enter a larger corrective phase.
  2. Looks like the SPX is in a DIAGONAL TRIANGLE 5th WAVE ( each leg of a diagonal is 3-waves ). This structure is evident in the latest rally off the late June lows.

    The second wave down is just about complete with today's downside action. The .618% retracement of the recent rally off the late June lows comes thru at 1503 SPX.

    Look for a low to be made in that area over the next day or two.
    After that, we should see a Wave 3 rally back up towards the 1534 area, atleast.
  3. Today's intra-day low of 1506.64 may have been it.
    Need to see more strength right out of the box tomorrow with a positive close. Any strength that fades late in the day with a negative close will indicate that more correction is necessary before a final Wave 5 to the upside.
  4. IMHO, if NDX trades above 1993 we could see 2400 in six weeks. We both use similar technical work. Apply some of your measurements to NDX and you'll see what I'm talking about. These highs here are not random. There's a vacuum above.

    As you know the parallels to '87 are numerous. While it's quite possible we're forming a rolling top (as you describe) I think it's equally possible we're about to go parabolic.

    I was in the rolling over camp until a couple of days ago but the level of negative sentiment has me thinking there's a blowout pop in the works.
  5. Love casting the chicken bones, huh?

    I am still waiting for someone to show any evidence of longterm serious outperformance success (verified track record for at least 3 years) using EW (aka entrail / ouija / etc...)

    Complaints will follow, but evidence will be in very short supply
  6. I guess in your book Tudor doesn't count......
  7. notouch


    Interesting analysis. The DJIA is looking similar now to how it looked in early April at the start of the last earnings season. There was a double bottom followed by a 50% retracement then we rallied almost 1500 points in 2 months. We reached the 50% retracement today so all we need now is another 1500 point rally.
  8. You obviously have little insight.
    PTJ used Elliott Wave in a most successful manner.
    I should know, I worked for him early on in my career in NYC.

    Elliott Wave, while prone to all sorts of interpretations and alternate counts becomes pretty darn precise after a 4th Wave correction ( which is what we just had recently into the late June low ). I have never claimed that the theory is infallible or completely precise/accurate in "real-time". However, I do know that given the move that we have had, we are now entering a phase where there are no more alternates and only one outcome. As a result, the "structure" of the market is becoming increasingly defined.

    As I stated two days ago, I felt that the market was simply testing a .618% fib level down to roughly 1503.50 and would make a low within a day or two. Turns out that the 1506 area was all the market needed to make that low.

    The 1534 projection that I made earlier in this post ( while most on ET were looking for yet another decline/crash ) and today's very strong rally to the upside gives me further confidence that the wave structure unfolding is the correct one.

    Again, the market needs to close higher today.
    A minor reversal pattern has been signaled ( yesterday ) suggesting that a higher close today will keep the upward bias for the next several sessions. Today is a pivot day which is significant to this upcoming 5th and final wave/advance to the upside.

    Depending on where one identifies the end of the Wave 4 correction ( 1484.18 or 1506.10 ) we can target the objective for Wave 5 by adding the 74.91 points of Wave 1 to this low.

    I believe that Wave 4 ended at 1484.18 and we are currently in a DIAGONAL 5th Wave advance which is characterized by advancing in "threes" along with wave "overlap". The only other interpretation is that Wave 4 ended yesterday morning at 1506.10 after an A-B-C-D-E correction.

    Either way, we are able to come about with upside targets of 1559.09 and 1581.01
  9. dtan1e


    i got a question for the wave expert, does elliott wave has anything to do /w fibonacci in calculating the wave
  10. Yes, fibs are used to calculate the magnitude of the waves.
    Right now, if Wave 5 were to equal Wave 1 of this entire advance, we should see a Wave 5 peak at 1559.09 SPX. For example, a 1.328 ratio of Wave 1 (74.91 points) would be added to the Wave 4 low and target 1587.70

    The interesting thing about the current market "juncture" is that above the old SPX highs, this market should have a substantial bid underneath it in order to get to the previously mentioned targets. This will be a key characteristic to look for, and will be most telling.

    This can be seen in terms of the Dow in that this morning's move back above 13,606 puts the market right back into the saddle to the upside. However, it ALSO puts pressure on the 13,606 mark to hold support on any weakness from here on out - - - especially if the larger trend is to continue to be seen as up.

    Fib projections from the March 2002 low hold 13,875 as a key target for this advance.
    #10     Jul 12, 2007