The dividend will have to be cut. I think it's already priced into this one. http://www.profitquotes.com/commodities-quotes.mpl?a=detailed&ticker=wm as for the bank in general, they can't go out of business. they are too big. someone will come along and buy them at some level. the key is to buy at a level below the buyout level, not above
I heard that part of what's to blame for their loss is a corrupt software in their "appraisal" system. This is so funny, 2 weeks ago I called them to raise my home line of credit and they guy told me my townhouse was appraised at $1.1million. The right price was closer to $670k.
With the extreme drops in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac today.... this is going to be interesting to see how this will affect WM. Hmmmm........ possible yummy?
I would definitely buy calls against any new shorts, which i have done at much higher prices (yes, the calls are decaying, but i'm more than making up for it on the shorts). Here is the probable outcome: Stock price declines to a point where a buyer (Wachovia or BofA) can bid for all of the retail banking side at around a 25% premium to that days close. The price needs to decline to a price where they could just close the mortgage business and write it off. The 25% premium will satisfy some of the holders. I don't think we're there, yet, but probably within 3-4 points. I may be covering my shorts very soon.
Well one will have to see how the NY State Attorney General investigation goes. It was solely because of this is what set the ball rolling even faster.
Dividend is $2.24 at the present moment yielding around 13%. A little bit too high wouldn't you agree?