WASDE-reading experience needed

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by FullyArticulate, Mar 27, 2007.

  1. So, I've been updating my fundamental spreadsheets in preparation for the planting report on Friday and noticed something pretty bizarre.

    Beans: Last year, 72M acres were planted. This year, WASDE is estimating 75.5M, or a 5% increase in acres.

    Corn: Last year, 82M acres were planted. This year, WASDE is estimating 78.3M, or a 4.5% decrease in acres.

    I find it very hard to believe that the corn/soy price ratio will result in a *reduction* in corn acres year-over-year.

    Since acreage estimates flow into ending stocks estimates, it would seem the official government estimates are *not even close*. Does this happen often? How much do market participants rely on the estimates to be correct?

    Because of the huge, and obvious, contradiction, I have to ask: Am I just reading this wrong?