Was the recent bear market trivial?

It's interesting that the S&P 600 SmallCap index and the S&P 400 MidCap Index are both near all-time highs. Similarly, I believe than an equal weighted index of the stocks in the S&P 500 is at or near all-time highs as well. What does this say about the recent bear market?

 

IMO... The decline was a correction in the long term bull market. The bear market has yet to begin.

 

That price goes up and it goes down.

 

Interesting point. The question then is what is the projection for the length of the long-term bull market?

 

Nobody knows... we can only play the "possibles". One of which is that Oct '02, low marked the end of the correction and a 4th Elliott Wave. If correct, the market is now likely in Wave 3 of 5th... If that too is correct, there should be one decent sized correction or consolidation trading range (4 of 5th), then a final 5 of 5th wave push to the upside which could peak on election day!

In the grand sense, the 4th wave correction was all about, "the party is over". The 5th wave up is all about, "No, the party is NOT over"... irony here is when the 5th of the 5th is completed, the party really IS over. But the overbelievers don't get it.

There are other possibles, of course. But that is the first big one on my radar.

 

Don't know much about wave cycles...but I concur totally....this period has been mirror of May 1970-Nov 1972 ; Nifty 50 era...and will be held up at any cost thru 11/04; then those first boomers, gulp turn 60 in 2005, and they are gonna want their money back, not to mention we will start paying for this credit binge.

Best,
David

 

I too find gnome's anlaysis quite interesting and possibly correct. Yes,it just may be that the bear market has truly not begun. But unlike gnome and TheCaracal I have a hunch that the peak will come before election day and the REAL bear market will commence before election day. Poor Georgw W Bush!

 

gnome - intersting EW analysi. Could you add some price targets/levels with this analysis.

 

I figured there was some cycle / EWT theory behind your viewpoint -- which was the reason I asked. If the Oct 02 wave was the end of Wave 4, what were waves 1, 2 and 3? Thanks!

 

[Had to split and go to an Avalance hockey game].
1. Too early for targets, I think.
2. Wave 1 of 5 was the Dec 3, '02 high. Wave 2, the March low. Currently in Wave 3 (??)