I have been a professional trader for the past 7 years trading predominately Nasdaq stocks. My p/l has gone up 20-40% a year from about $30k a year to my peak in 2008 at about $200k. Life was good...until 2009. Last year I made about $20k. I wish that were a typo but it isn't. Obviously my confidence, size and risk tolerance have been profoundly effected by my performance. I have kept my head down and slogged forward hoping something would break right but I have felt 1-5 steps behind the curve consistently. I feel the only thing that can explain this is a systemic change in the way the markets trade making my techniques less profitable or obsolete. Has anyone else noticed this out there? I'm not sure what I can do. Obviously I am broken, not the market and I'm not looking for a silver bullet. I just wanted to see "what it's like out there" and determine if something has changed in the market, if my strategies no longer work, or it's all in my head.....
good traders are at a disadvantage in this market. The Govt is guying everything it can and floating markets up to infinity. Buying at these levels is for amateurs and gamblers in a normal market but it works when Govt just keeps buying in random places. In 3 of my last 10 trades, I was up on a short $1.50-$2 on the spy and all 3 eventually became $1 losers. I wanted to let them run but it just will not happen. The other 7 were winners, usually only $1.50 or so though. And iit will only get worse as the dems try to buy the election.
Volume is extremely light for Jan open, we are going to see rapid deterioration in liqudity and volume for many years to come. Traders should save up money and stop buying unnecessary luxury items.
yeap your story is like mine, in fact your numbers are similar to my own, but some systems are still doing well, a few pure discretionary traders are still doing relatively OK, but you are absolutely right, there has been a systemic change in the markets and it will last for many many years
I hope this isn't the case for many many years. If so, there will be at least one less trader in the market.
ephstrader, There has been a shifting of power to HFT algorithmic systems. Through flash orders and sub-pennying, they have the complete edge on us. I've been a Bright trader for 10 years, and our firm is struggling as well. I have launched a website to deal with these issues. http://www.defendtrading.com Check this out, it will answer a lot of questions for you. The sub-pennying stuff is critical to understand. Dennis
Look at the volume these 1st 2 days of Jan, this is a precursor of things to come, there is simply lack of interest in the marketo
Thanks. That is a great thread. I wish I knew what my problem is. I see opportunities out there to be sure but for whatever reason, I can no longer grab them. I think a big part of my problem is me but I'm glad to hear that I'm not the only one feeling the pain.