It is fundamentally flawed to think that the US reflects more than 25% of the world's "worth". Growth has much stronger potential elsewhere as long as there is no conflict to destroy the effort.
. Reply to EMRGLOBAL SouthAmerica: Fasten your seat belts on Wall Street because itâs going to be a bumpy ride next week in global financial markets. It will be fun to watch the talking heads on television and their spins and damage control. .
The world's major stock markets are all down.... The best being Canada at -7%, and he worst being China at -58%...... The US is at -15%..... Definitely a wide parameter within which to work..... http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports..._international/year/2008/weekly/37/index.html The key point being here....is the hope of firms like BATS with brokers like IB....get the costs of daytrading all markets to a level more like that of the US..... Volatility will always be present in some market in the world.... A traders dream....an investor's nightmare.... Hopefully the SEC will not try to further socialize the markets by putting in false road blocks..... Greed and Fear have and always will change on a dime......The media will make sure of that..... Let the markets work..... It was just a short time ago that the readings were mostly all postive..... As the old saying goes.... Gotta give it up, to get it back in spades..... .................................................. This is just a Bush/Cheney/Greenspan/SEC market hangover..... These folks will be gone....along with their contageous economic diseases..... What the US needs is a non-socialist....truly capitalist leader.....what the US especially does not need .....is a socialist leader..... It is not just the US....the world needs for the US to have this.....
South America, After reading your observations and political opinions and links to news items posted here on ET, it occured to ask the following. Do you realize that most readers here are traders, investors or both? What specific practical recommendations would you give as to what county, sector, company, that would be of use to the average investor/trader?
Well, Bloomberg had a special report with the complete news conference by FHFA director Lockhart and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. I think politicians and investors world over are going to be screaming fraud and bloody murder - it's a scandal in reality. Cheap loans were an illusion created by the mixing of federal intervention on markets. Terrible... but GWB kept saying "the US economy is strong". Paulson is very right that there needs to be a more clear-cut rule for housing finance, and it now seems the US is essentially so interventionist that it resembles socialism. Hopefully they can restructure markets so that trust to US markets and economy can be returned. As Paulson said - the federal regime will be in effect throughout December 2009, after which portfolios of Fannie and Freddie will be reduced with 10% per year. Interestingly, the rest of the world will probably be restructuring their trust and investments too... Maybe time to stop financing limitless US credit and consumption? This scandal is not over by a long shot and will haunt markets for years to come now.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aac4VTJNHl_4 ... "This is an irreversible trend and Wall Street will no longer be the centre of the universe." ... the worst we've ever seen and liquidity have been mispriced for years without enough regard for risk. Financial markets are shifting toward Asia as emerging markets grow faster than the rest of the world economy. Domestic and regional markets Asia, Middle East and Latin America are rising. The whole market is going to continue to expand because that's going to be driven by the underlying macroeconomic trends. Brazil has the biggest reserves of natural resources in the world. China has the largest population in the world. Consumption is rising very fast there - also in India. Russia has a huge agricultural potential as well. Brazil is expanding agricultural exports very fast - primarily to Asia and Middle East - e.g poultry.
. Kowboy: What specific practical recommendations would you give as to what county, sector, company, that would be of use to the average investor/trader? ******* September 8, 2008 SouthAmerica: I am not a trader. I think in terms of long-term and I see trends and what is going to happen in the future before things materialize. I have a very good track record of seeing things in the future that other people canât see it. In the early 1990âs after I closed down Mesbla Trading (A subsidiary of a major Brazilian company) here in New Jersey I continued working as a consultant and helped the Angola government with a project here in New York City. One of the other executives of Mesbla Trading became a senior executive of a company owned by the Angola government that was when I helped then with that project in NYC. At that time I met a lot of Angolans and the UN Angolan Ambassador and at that time I put together a plan for economic development for the Angolan economy that the Ambassador sent to the Finance Minister of Angola for him to review my plan. During that period I learned a lot about Angola, but on my prior job at Mesbla Trading we used to do a lot of business with the Angolan government â they used to buy from us millions and millions of dollars of a number of commodities from Brazil such as sugar, powder milk and so on⦠You can read about it at Brazzil Magzine â June 2003 âBrazil and the Angolan Connectionâ http://www.brazzil.com/2003/html/news/articles/jun03/p133jun03.htm Most Americans could not find Angola on the map even to save their own lives and only recently Angola did show up on the US radar and that happened just because the US is so dependent on imported oil. In 1993 I went to work for Ultragroup Corp. here in New Jersey. Most Americans never heard of that company, but in Brazil they were one of the largest companies in the gas business. Our office here in NJ used to order pipelines and other oil exploration materials that they were getting on behalf of Petrobras. Ultragroup also had a number of gas or oil tankers. I convinced the president of the company that our company should become a distributor of water here in the US. At that time there was almost no water being distributed on the supermarkets. They had Perrier and a few other smaller players here in the US market. I suggested that we had a meeting with the owner of a small water distribution company located here in New Jersey â It used to call the âWater Companyâ â this fellow had started importing bottled water from countries around the world and he had a nice selection. He operated from this small warehouse here in NJ. He had a small niche business. He got interested on our proposal and we spent the next 12 months working on that project â to bring bottled water from Brazil to sell in the US market. At that time when you went to any supermarket there was very few options regarding water other than Perrier. That was a time before water became popular here in the United States. By the way, when I told people that I was working on this project to bring bottled water from Brazil to sell in the US supermarkets most people asked me who do you think is going to buy water in the supermarket when all you have to do is get free water from any water faucet? If I had mentioned about my water project on this forum at that time I am sure most of the people would have laughed of my project and would have told me that I was an idiot. I was right about the demand for water, but during that entire year we could not figure out the right container to sell the water. We played around with a number of possibilities including bottles like Coke bottles of 1 liter or 2 liter sizes. We played around with the type of plastic of the container (some even gave a bad taste to the water) and we had other types of containers that they had started selling water in Brazil â these small clear plastic containers looked like a cup of Jello and the top was covered with foil that you had to peel it to be able to drink the water. After a year we had settled on plastic containers the size of 2 little bottle of Coke. And at that time Ultragroup company merged with one of the largest chemical companies in Brazil â and that chemical company had a large department that did all its international trading from Brazil and we got the call to close the subsidiary of Ultragroup located here in New Jersey and that was the end of the bottled water project. By the end of 1994 the bottled water business started growing and became the large business that we have today here in the US. Today a lot of the bottles have that little nipple on top of the cap and people can drink right from the bottle without having to remove the cap. That little nipple made all the difference in the world and the product did catch on and the market for bottled water did skyrocket. And today we have even flavored waters. I spotted the opportunity and our company spent one year on that project for nothing since after the merger the new combined company was not interested in that little niche market for bottled water. If you read most of my postings and my published articles I gave you many clues as to the future of Brazil and China and the reasons why it does not matter what happens in the commodities market China does not have another choice other than continue building new cities and buying stuff from Brazil. On my articles about my economic development plan for Brazil I also covered many areas of what is happening in Brazil including in the real estate development area. I am almost finished with a project that I am presenting to the Government of Saudi Arabia that project will help the economic development of both countries. I am also contacting some major companies in Saudi Arabia to participate of the project. The truth is I am getting very busy with the project and at the same time I have more editors of newspaper asking me to send more articles because their readers keep asking them why they are not publishing more of my articles. By the way after 2 months that my article about the renationalization of Petrobras was published that article still the most discussed article on Brazzil magazine up to today. I know that there are at least 15 people here in this forum who appreciates the information that I post on this forum and some of them told me that they used that information and made some money â I know that because they sent me direct emails saying that and asking me to continue posting the material despite of the constant criticisms of the usual suspects. As I get busier with my project I will have less time to post stuff on this forum and I a lot people will be happy here on this forum that they donât have to read my postings anymore. If you read my articles you would know that I was right about many forecasts I made about the value of the US dollar against the euro, the direction of interest rate, the value of gold in US dollar terms, and friends of mine did very well on stock recommendations, and another friend I finally was able to convince him and he sold a very large farm that his family had in Texas and he got top dollar for his farm since he sold it when the market was at its peek since that time the market did head South. Today he is glad he listed to me. .
. Reply to Kowboy You said: âWhat specific practical recommendations would you give..â I write about things and general trends but I donât give direct advice about investments. Anyway, I just posted this information following my article about the renationalization of Petrobras. I understand that Petrobras is going to buy about 200 ships. ***** Lula kicks-off vessel construction in Pernambuco By La Société September 06, 2008 With the commencement of the steel cutting activities at the Atlântico Sul Shipyard, in Ipojuca, Pernambuco, this Friday, (09/05), Petrobras starts a new era in the Brazilian naval industry by beginning the construction of the first of 49 vessels foreseen for the two phases of the Fleet Modernization and Expansion Program (Promef). With the move, the sector is now in full revitalization: the shipyards are modernizing their facilities and becoming more competitive. Furthermore, special programs train and qualify labor. One of the most important projects in the GAP (Growth Acceleration Program), the Promef was entirely prepared and executed by the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration and will generate some 40,000 direct and 120,000 indirect jobs in its two phases. The first phase foresees the construction of 26 vessels, among which oil tankers and gas vessels, and involves investments of $2.5 billion. In the second stage, 23 more vessels will be built. President Lula compared his early professional career, as a steel worker, to the opportunities the shipyardâs workers have now. "The people from the Northeast, when given a chance, embrace things eagerly. We went 22 years without building a blast furnace, without increasing our steel production capacity. With the GAP, and its objectives, we are proud of this Country, which is recovering its naval industry,â he said. Transpetro president, Sérgio Machado: âWith the shipyard construction, Brazilians will get a chance to have working papers and to improve their quality of life.â Petrobrasâ president and CEO, José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, meanwhile, said the great efforts put into this construction were not in vain. âSeeing young people having access to their first jobs, being able to carry out an economic activity, gives us a better perspective of the future. This is the outcome of a correct political organization, one that seeks to reduce social inequality,â he said. In the first phase, ten Suezmax, five Aframax, four Panamax, four product vessels, and three liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transportation vessels were bid for. The Atlântico Sul Shipyard is starting the construction of ten Suezmax oil tankers, for a global price of $1.2 billion. The 16 other vessels of this phase will be built in Rio de Janeiro and Santa Catarina. Transpetro launched, in early July, the international call for bids for the second phase of the Promef. This new stage calls for bidding for 22 vessels and the direct hiring of one more, to transport LPG and currently in construction in the Itajaà Shipyard, Santa Catarina. In total, there will be seven DP (Dynamic Positioning) vessels â four Suezmax and three Aframax â eight product, five gas, and three bunker transportation vessels. In the first phase of the program, the 26 vessels will add up to 2,700,000 tons of gross weight, for a total cost of $2.5 billion. In this stage alone, 440,000 tons of thick steel plates will be consumed. In the second phase, there will be 23 more vessels, totaling 1,300,000 tons, which will use 240,000 tons of steel. The annual positive impact the program will have on the Payment Balance will be $600 million: $330 million in the first and $270 million in the second phase. With this, Petrobras will help rebuild our sovereignty in the maritime transportation sector, which represents an annual expense of $10 billion for the Country. Of this amount, less than 4% are paid to Brazilian riggers. These figures are vested with even more importance when one considers the fact 80% of the international trade takes place on the sea, and in Brazil, this percentage rises to 95%. The Promefâs main objective is not only to build vessels in Brazil: its main premise is ensuring scale in order for the shipyards to recover conditions to compete internationally, as in the past. With the program, Brazil is retaking its former position in the global major vessel market, as in the 1960âs and 1970âs, when it ranked as the worldâs second shipbuilder. Program results are already visible: the general volume of orders made to our shipyards is already considerably up â including orders coming from abroad. The major oil discoveries Petrobras has been making, in addition to the foreseen increase in production are generating new logistics demands that have been reflecting on the Promef. The strategic importance of building vessels in Brazil is being transformed by the program into an opportunity for investments and development for Brazil⦠Source: http://www.edubourse.com/finance/actualites.php?actu=45004 .
http://www.brasiloutsourcing.com.br/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_Silicon_Valley Brazilian labour laws are extremely strict, and so it is not the easiest undertaking - but wages are low (roughly US$12/hour), and some are pretty good at what they do. To deal with Brazilian business successfully you need to know the culture well, and language if you want to interact. Well, that's what I'm doing anyway... Credit market is booming here in Brazil and banks have solid profits. Bradesco is the largest private bank in Brazil.