But most of his outperformance was during his early years when most of his gains/wealth were from owning stocks and not businesses. Now that his businesses overwhelm his stocks, his performance lagged the SPY even with his incredible deals on BAC, Goldman, etc.?
His businesses are private holdings that generate for him net income in the billions per QUARTER. i saw last year his free cash and liquid securities was at almost $100 billion. His stock holdings could earn 1% a year and his business still earn in NET INCOME more than most small countries. While you wonder if his stock holdings beat the S&P his private business holdings kick off enough free cash and net income to buy countries. I doubt he is worried if his home depot stock beats the S&P as he has more money than God and earning even 1% on the extra money he throws at the stock market still generates 100s of milions. If you want to emulate Buffet it is in mergers/aquisitions/private buy outs/finance and valuing a business for purchase. When he says never lose money that message is not for traders and stock investors really, it is for people evaluating a business to take over. What makes Buffet different is that when he bought Geico or See's Candies he gets his team to look at all the financials, meet with management, review all contracts, liabilities and assets, have his own accountants review the books, inspect the plants and buildings etc. Things you and I cannot do when we buy shares of APPL or AMZN or trade futures.
why do you care? even if true are you willing to put in the effort to prove to yourself to be an outlier?
I’m reading the book, The Outsiders. While everyone talks about buffets stock picking prowess the book focuses on something more general: capital allocation. In the private businesses, buffet is known to let the management teams run autonomously but he maintains tight control on the capital they can use.
If you went back to the beginning of Buffett's company and somehow were able to follow all his moves- private and public- with reasonable money management, you would not have reaped near the market beating outperformance and here is why: Over half of Buffett's outperformance came from leveraging his insurance float and this is something you can not do. This is true even has you shadowed. (at the exact buy and sell prices) his public purchases which have performed better than his private holdings. However, if someone wanted to buy his company and hold it for 30 years or more, I would not argue. And, at least for awhile, they could tell their friends: "Warren Buffett works for me!"
Maybe some of it. When I used to buy shares I was a member of the UK Shareholders Association. As well as regular round tables on potential good investments they would regularly organise visits to listed company HQ's or locations. These were often hosted by the CEO, always by Board-level people. We suspected that they put up pretty much the same sort of behind-the-scenes presentations and tours they used for analysts visits. You had to be a UKSA member to attend but not hold the shares. Maybe there's something like this in your area? PS: Once a firm had agreed to our request for a visit, their shares went into a fantasy portfolio. They always went up.