Here is a 6mo chart I posted 4 days ago (Mon April 7th) of SPY and I said then that you don't know which direction it will go until it breaks out of the box I have drawn on it. <img src="http://www.fantasydaytraders.com/eqpics/SP6mo.jpg"> Here we are today, still in the box. It will most likely continue to consolidate inside this box until closer to April 16 or 17th. At which point it will be forced to break out one way or the other. If it breaks to the upside I would expect it to head up to somewhere between 149 and 152. If it breaks to the downside then look for a drop to around 126. If it breaks the 126 support then it could head as low as 122 or even 117. I really don't see it going any lower. <img src="http://www.fantasydaytraders.com/eqpics/SP6mo-2.jpg">
So does the next wave down which started today always start off on an UP day? Is the market just giving me a better entry for my short?
I think "you guys" are studying the daily charts too much. This pattern you see in front of you has completed to the upside with a magnificent breakout a few times before on the charts in the last 8 years. However, that was in an uptrend and all you stooges are uptrend traders. You have zero experience trading in a downtrend. My strategy is buying long-dated in the money calls/puts and using the weekly charts. I want you to look at the weekly chart. Study the weekly chart and look at the middle of the line. In a downtrend, price cannot hold itself above the middle line. In an uptrend, price holds itself above the middle line. The only chance this chart has is breaking the middle line. This isnt guru analysis, but basic analysis. All you pea brains know how to do is create multiple aliases on elitetrader. Goldman sachs, I THINK NOT!!! Not one of you can even think up a decent strategy let alone tell me what your strategy is. BWAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!! Now I put the full quote in their 4 ya as a little hint. 1386.74 is all this chart has got in it. Thats the top. The next step is going down.
Here, I have marked up your own chart. It shows the consolidation into the same corner I was showing. The market will soon have to make a decision. To break it's longer term downtrend and follow the shorter up trend OR to break it's shorter term uptrend and continue to follow the down trend. If it follows the uptrend it will meet some resistance at about 1400ish and if it can break that it could then move as high as 1500. If it decides to follow the downtrend look for minor support at about 1310 and pretty good support about 1257. Even if it breaks the 1257 support line it still has more support at 1225 and 1200 so it's not a "look out below" type of scenario. <img src="http://www.fantasydaytraders.com/eqpics/SPX-1.jpg">
I thought that the title of this thread was about the NEXT WAVE DOWN and how Elliott Wave Theory describes a 3-Wave structure in an unfolding Bear market . . . Yet, you have totally avoided any discussion regarding wave structure, be it on a Daily, Weekly, or Monthly basis. Why is that?
I will tell you why that is...you were not intelligent enough to read the first part of this thread. I wasnt proclaiming to be a guru in Elliott Wave Theory. I simply stated that the market usually does things in factors of 3. I dont know the Elliott Wave nor do I want to know the Elliott Wave. In fact, the inventor of that Wave was an idiot who made many false predictions. I apologize, you cant read nor can you type and nor can you tell me what that pattern represents on the spy from January 22nd until today and the signifigance of Friday or the signifigance of 134.65. Go back to the library computer dude. Do me a favor though...pick up a book and read...
You are a complete MORON. Either that, or you should run for political office because you completely avoided the question that I asked. Perhaps you should retitle your "thread" because it has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH ELLIOTT WAVE. Moreover, you haven't provided any reference to your 3-wave theory in any of your posts on this thread. - - - Again, why is that? Instead, you simply display a chart with some "envelopes" and a mid-point moving average. Where are the WAVES dude??? How come you can't identify them in your chart? You state that a Bear Market unfolds in 3-waves, and yet you now claim that the inventor of such theory is an "idiot". Sounds like you are being quite hypocritical in your logic. How can your logic be sound and supported by FACT when you later CONTRADICT yourself and say that the inventor of such theory is an idiot??? You make absolutely no sense whatsoever. Perhaps you should try taking a class in "Reading Comprehension" or maybe "English As A Second Language" at your local junior college.
Could be, but it still hasn't broken it's downward longer term trend yet. Nor has it proved to be continuing the down trend. It is at the crossroads and any speculation on which trend it will follow at this point is just that...pure speculation. Smart money would wait a few more days for one of those lines to be broken and then ride the trend it decides to keep following. As soon as one of those lines get broken then and only then will I be all in going with whatever the market decides to do.