Why do you spend so much time typing paragraphs of personal opinion to benefit nameless faceless people online? Would your time not be better spent elsewhere? More importantly do you think anyone takes your financial, or 99% of peoples opinion on this board with anythingmore than a grain of salt. HOT TIP - More studying, less seeking approval from other newbies on some forum .02
The horizontal line on this chart is where I believe the next line of resistance is going to be. To believe in this chart, you have to have some confidence in trend lines and the theory of resistance. To some, these are just imaginary lines that mean nothing. The first scenario is that we are at the bottom right now and you can see that one trend line supports this hypothesis. Now is the buying point and its a period before we will break to new highs and possibly above 1550 in the future. The second scenario is that we are not at the bottom and then the next stop is 1150. This is a target that I have seen published in quite a few posts and have heard from several different people. They have calculated that target based on the obvious head&shoulders on the chart. However, there is another trend line on the chart that seems to support the 1150 target. As well, thats half the height of that large cup at the top which is a logical buying point. The third scenario is that the index will break down further then 1150 and then there will be no support except for the year 2002 lows. We will break down further and re-test the lows. Look at the VIX. The VIX is what forces price through trend lines. Now tell me does the current vix, which has reached equal highs and higher lows over the last months a bullish chart? I say the target of that vix is about 57. A vix greater then 44 will probably be needed to force the price down to 1150 and thats what I believe will happen. The vix erupting to 57 with the price being forced to 1150.
Keep spewing garbage. You dont know an iota about Technical Analysis. Here you are speculating as if this the reality. These are you imaginary scenarios and wishes for others to do exactly the opposite what you want to do- they sell and you back up the truck? The market was overbought, its slowly working it off, its still above 50 day moving averages and holding off these bad news and recession speculations very well. It had all the chances to sell off but it did not. No matter how you do, shorting will be obsolete for some time. You should know one thing is certain: Feds and Treasury Department will step in and take you out if you get out of line. They are watching the markets like a hawk.
Oh no the sky is falling, the sky is falling! When I read this all I can picture is an old man walking the streets of New York wearing a washboard sign that says: "Armageddon is upon us!" on the front and "Repent for the end is near!" on the back. I trade options so I really don't care where the market goes, or if it goes anywhere at all. I can make money no matter what it does. Those who trade stocks can short if they want. Either way this is not the doom and gloom you are looking for...move along.
When it comes to Elliott Wave, you clearly have no clue. Impulse waves travel in 5's in a trend, not 3's. Three wave patterns are "corrective". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_theory
Why are long-dated puts superior to short-dated puts, or an outright short stock position? Also don't forget that bear markets present great opportunities on the long side too, buying at panic bottoms for the sort of short, sharp rally we saw in the second halves of Jan and March. Long-term puts are certainly not the only way to profit from a bear, and are probably not even the best way. __________________ "If someone has a gun and is trying to kill you, it would be reasonable to shoot back with your own gun." - the Dalai Lama.
These are not the only contingencies. For example: 4) We go way lower, but not as low as the 2002 lows. We might stop at 1000 in the S&P, for example (psychological level), or just at some random event-driven point, rather than a chart-driven point. 5) We range between 1250ish and 1400ish for a while longer, frustrating both bulls and bears. Never dismiss the trading range scenario from your contingency planning. There are few things more expensive than trying to trade a range like a trending market, and few things more profitable than trading a range correctly. I agree that the VIX is important. I would say that if and when the S&P hits 1250 or 1400ish, it's the VIX that will signal whether those levels are going to hold or get blown through. Remember the Aug 2007 lows, when they got approached in Jan the VIX was not at panic levels, it was in the mid 20s and actually trading weak on the approach to 1375. That turned out to be a good indicator the level was going to be taken out. Now look at March 2008, the VIX soared into the higher 30s as we hit 1250ish. That, along with the BSC collapse, was a good bottom signal. So, my plan is as follows: when the VIX is in the low 20s and the market in the 1350-1400 range, I am aggressively buying puts and placing shorts, and (more important) liquidating all longs. I will cover these positions when both the VIX is over 30 and we are near 1250 (support), and go long when those 2 conditions are met and we also have widespread fear & panic. I will only stay short near 1250 if the VIX is at modest levels (e.g. in the 20s) and people are in complacent, bottom-fishing mode rather than panic mode. If the market does break below 1250, for example down to 1230, and panic has not yet set in, i will aggressively buy short-dated puts anticipating a snowballing selling panic that will end with a soaring VIX and market collapse.
Doesn't appear so bad to me. The top should be 1380 to 1400 and then an âAâ âBâ âCâ pullback to 1340-1350. 1330 S&P is the warning sign, which should never break. If we break 1300 we could waterfall to 1225. The âbigâ top is April 16th or 22nd then down to May 8th. Cycles suggest that a high will be made in mid to late April either the 16th-17th or the 22nd. From there a decline until about May 8th seems reasonable. As long as we have not taken on the March lows by then, we would then go to 1500 or even 1600 by early July which could be the high for the year and the start of the next two year bear market. note 1410 massive resistance
well its all about shafting the herd, and with so many folks waiting for dumppage like the easy days back in January, it aint gonna happen. Unitl the Longs can be taken unawares again like in the first quarter your just gonna have to be patient. Joe Public has just realised you can sell stuff you dont own and there jumping on every down move. so we go against the easy flow right ?