Warning: The Next Wave Down Starts Now

Discussion in 'Trading' started by jackstone54, Apr 9, 2008.

  1. Do I have your attention yet fellow traders? I apologize for the flashy headline but I have to get your attention or else you will lose money. Ok, well I doubled down on my shorts and puts today for all of my positions. I want to make it known to anyone who is long in almost any stock, sector or index that the next wave down is about to begin.

    There is the theory of the Elliott Wave which states bear markets erupt in three phases. There is an initial leg down followed by a short leg up and then another leg down. This is a complex theory that can easily be misinterpreted and I am by far no expert in it. However, the moral of the story is that the market usually comes in threes. We have experienced the first wave down followed by a short wave up and now we will experience another wave down which will feel real bad to some.

    I say this now to everyone here plain and simple. The market is going much much lower. Let me clarify a target for you now. 11000 on the Wilshire 5000 which is 25% lower then today's close. This target is to be reached by the conclusion of this year. Pure and simple.

    The recovery will be nice if you still have money to invest and trade. However, by that time many of you will be whipsawed out. Im not certain how many trading blogs I have seen disappear or how many posters have left ET. There have certainly been many whipsawed out already in the current downtrend.

    Listen to me, honestly, there are very few sectors, indexes, stocks, futures, etc. that will behave the way you want it during a bear. Only logical thinking contrarian investors like myself who go in on long dated puts will be able to trade through this market successfully.

    My wise words of wisdom for those who want to listen and understand are this...get the f*ck out. You heard me. Tommorrow, I want you to close all of your long positions and go to cash. Wait patiently until the end of the year and then jump in on the recovery.

    All of the gurus of ET are now gone and the only ones left are those who know what will happen next. I beg of you to listen although I know most wont.

    Good luck to all and look at my chart...
  2. tortoise


    PPT won't let it happen. Markets now only allowed to RISE!
  3. At least show us a picture of the S&P500
  4. fo real
  5. I tend to agree - I am still holding ES short entries from 1385.00 on up looking for the next rotation down. A "news" event run up through 1370 area will get me to thin out the position short term to reevaluate. I covered some of the position at 1355.00 today but I will hold the rest to see if a strong down move takes us back sub 1300 (looking at 1285 as the next primary target).
  6. C99


    They can't change where we are going, only how fast we get there.
  7. toc


    Seeing at the Macro levels beyond 2008, the US destiny is in the hands of one of the 3 leaders:

    McCain: No Iraq exit strategy or desire..........should be stopped right away from packing bags for the White House.

    Obama: Too Liberal minded and not Fiscally saavy. Has the biggest potential of causing financial havoc on the US of A. Like Nixon in Nam, threatens to widen the war by invading Pak and others to stop AQ resurgence.

    Hillary: Best of all, most experienced, strongest leader of the 3, no extreme agendas, balanced and firm. Some that USA desperately needs to save its boat.
  8. The ONLY thing she is good for is trading cattle futures - oh wait, she did not make the actual trades - oh well. :D

    BTW, all three are scum losers - all compromised and controlled.
  9. Look at the attached 10 year chart of the SPX with monthly candles and the 20ma and 40ma.
    Its possible the SPX is currently in the same pre-bear predicament that it was in back in late 2000 to early 2001.
    The 20 month moving average has been violated on a monthly candle closing basis and in all probability it will now serve as resistance to any major rallies.
  10. Good observation Jeff, the candles do look similar.
    #10     Apr 10, 2008