Warning: Its going to get rough

Discussion in 'Trading' started by michaelscott, Apr 30, 2007.

  1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUA&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p65893415456

    At around 2:30, all of my charts started to take a big dump violating moving averages and moving across technical parameters. I looked for news in all of my individual stocks. No news that would have set this selloff.

    Then checked all the indexes and it appeared that around 2:30 everything started heading down.

    Then I turned on CNBC to see if something happened, a world event? Nope.

    Then I looked at the above chart. I have not used the weekly chart with bollinger bands before. Notice each time the total market has touched the upper Bollinger Band there was either

    1) A correction to the lower Bollinger usually lasting weeks to months.


    2) A pullback lasting a 1-4 weeks before running higher.

    We are now at a point where things might get rough either for a week or more and it might or might not get a little rocky.

    Hopefully, this is a temporary event. You might consider buying one of the ultrashort indexes.

    I dont expect the rest of this week to be positive.
  2. Whats interesting today is the FXI and CAF are rolling over while Shanghei makes a new high last night. Might be time for a China implosion.
  3. fxi hasn't floowed china in 4 months. i was short the fxi at 116 when china was 2700. china 40% higher than that and fix 10% lower
  4. china is closed for rest of week

    No need to worry
  5. Sell in May effect kicking in? :D
  6. Or the usual Wall St anal-yst nonsense like the market is "tired" and it needs to take a nap.
  7. I'm glad we're selling now

    it puts less preasure on the Asian indexes which have been selling off a lot recently

    Also it looks like stupid money is selling into the close again

    let them

    and stupid shorts are entering

    nasdaq falling in chunks of .03-.06% every 30-60 seconds
  8. jazzsax


    could also be profit taking since it's April 30th....
  9. hels02


    GROW's doing good :D
  10. I think you should re-read my original post.

    Let me be plain. Judging by history, its either:

    1) a 10% correction lasting several weeks to months


    2) a 1-2% pullback lasting 1-4 weeks (or at least until the market can clear away from the top Bollinger)

    I tend to believe it wont be a 10% correction, but cant leave out the possibility.

    I believe it will be a pullback similiar to the one in October 2006 when the total market reached the top Bollinger Band. It will probably last 1 week.

    In any event, if its not a 10% correction, and the market does go higher then its a signal that there will be a correction in the future. June, July, Sept, Oct. Think October 2006.

    Its safe to buy GROW at this level, my opinion. My price target is in the 40s.

    #10     Apr 30, 2007