Everyone knows how they blew up, and why. Again, go back and study till you find something that actually matters.
As the quote explains, its all about probabilities. The OP is delusional if he thinks he's giving away anything that isn't or shouldn't be obvious to all.
What a dummy spin a coin and get your 50/50 thank the lord for the loads of dummies on this planet makes the rest look special
Yea people here are jokes.. I thought I said before you make a comment please read my post carefully.. In my first post I clearly said "What I'm about to tell you isn't new, but its a good reminder for all you doubters..."... The problem is you read what you want to read... Did you even backtest the strategy? If you are having a hard time then please say that, but don't come on here and distract people from good information. I love you all...Happy traidng!!
Most traders and would be traders already know the strategy you're talking about. And there's the flip side. If the market went down 2 points you would lose 2 contracts worth of 2 points. If the market went up 2 points and reversed passed the new break even ,you would be stopped out with only 2 points worth of 1 contract. 50% win rate on a strategy wouldn't cut it here. You would need much more than 50%. And correctly determining when it's a swing vs. a small move worth only a scalp. Hard to do with a system that only works 50% win ratio.
Yea I know exactly what you are talking about... But you are not counting the winners... A lot of the winners will cover those losers and break evens... Remember, some winners will be 6, 8, even 15 points... Don't believe me? Please do some backtesting... The problem is most people can't create a system like this because they aren't looking at the chart right... Trust me it's there... Just train your brain and look...
LTCM didn't blow up so to speak, they got blown up. Goldmans and others were their prime brokers so knew their positions. When vol started to rise due to the Asian crisis the street smelled blood with LTCM via their positions (remember, they knew what they were). So Goldmans, as nice people do, put the squeeze on, it's as simple as that, and the rest is history.
Big move meaning trend or price persistency? IF so, then why exchange a proven position for fresh risk?
They wouldn't have had such huge positions to unwind if they hadn't kept doubling up on their losers. Destroyed by the gambler's ruin.