"the market began to aggressively price in a war with Iran today." What market? The war has already been won. If you want to quote USD weakening, curve steepening, long end falling, rising oil and gold..." Explain how these instruments work and what their underlying significance is, and what systems they affect? Are you self insured?
You believe correctly. However the conventionality of the type of war that is going on is staring at you.
More self insults, I would like to see how you call your boss "bozo." If you think I am ever going to give any secrets away, think again, I don't get bought or fold easily like a cheap Italian suit.
As I was saying, this is a war with Iran on Iraqi sand ... it's already underway, and neither at a time or a place of our choosing. Mark my word - this will only be won in Tehran. Civilians in Iraq Flee Mixed Areas as Killings Rise By EDWARD WONG and KIRK SEMPLE Published: April 2, 2006 BAGHDAD, Iraq, April 1 â The war in Iraq has entered a bloodier phase, with the killings of Iraqi civilians rising tremendously in daily sectarian violence while American casualties have steadily declined, spurring tens of thousands of Iraqis to flee from mixed Shiite-Sunni areas ... http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/w...&en=f8918f6ac70104fb&ei=5094&partner=homepage
It's hard understand why you are so ignorant. In your initialization of this thread, you wondered why equities didn't move. Hard to ignore me isn't it, or may be you might want to rethink your equity strategy. .
I would like to respectfully disagree. This war has already been fought, and the US and the free world have already won. In case you never noticed. May be that is why you have the word "traders" in inverted commas? It is not going anywhere near Tehran, and any clear thinking individual knows that. We aren't so dumb.
Is the decision to invade Iran, already made like it was with Iraq? Is the market pricing it in? Bush told Blair determined to invade Iraq without UN resolution or WMD. Mon Mar 27, 2:13 AM ET NEW YORK (AFP) - US President George W. Bush made clear to British Prime Minister Tony Blair in January 2003 that he was determined to invade Iraq without a UN resolution and even if UN arms inspectors failed to find weapons of mass destruction in the country, The New York Times reported. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060327/pl_afp/usbritainbushiraqdiplomacy_060327064943
I estimate that $10 of the currnet QM price of $65 is anticipating external price shocks, whether it be hurricanes or war with Iran etc. Equities will move on that indirectly, but only mildly so imo. Above $72 a barrel, a new psychology will take place, but how much it affects equity trends remains to be seen. nitro