I think the market is looking at pricing in the possibilities of oil making a new high run as we move closer to summer. With oil at $67 and the demand pick up right around the corner, this must be factored in to stock pricing by all the fund managers. This only adds to cpi and ppi pressures which is of course watched by the fed. The US house of cards may be tested soon with all the confluence of economic pressures ahead. We are at least going to blow up Las Vegas as a show of force to Iran------------ http://www.infowars.com/articles/military/us_test_700_ton_explosive.htm
PIYP if you want. Iran is an exporter of crude and and importer of distillates. With its distillate needs increasing, it is all to happy to crush the crack spreads, and keep raising oil prices, for their eternal hatred of the west. (And we are all supposed to love them for it)! So in comes France, and Iran sells its crude in Euros and buys its distillates in USDs. (And we are all supposed to love them for it)! Factor in the spreads between the 10yr US Treasury and the German Bund and the Euros become very satisfied. (And we are all supposed to love them for it)! Better still, why doesn't the US then then invest abroad, and retain its diplomacy, so that the forex spreads can then again get crushed. (And we are supposed to love the world for it)! Just as an aside, had it been left to politicians to run the WWII, the US would have lost, because of their distain for their intelligence. So now with Iraq, it is best for the Generals to run the war and not the politicians.
Ok, bottom line is likely both of us are half right - well, if we are lucky. I'm just saying my guess, at this point in time, is different than yours. On to another angle, I offer two points that may or may not be obvious to others here: 1. In fact now US and UK are engaged in War with Iran, but it is primarily being fought through Iran's Shiite proxies in Iraq against US influence - a fight for political dominance in Iraq and more broadly in the Middle East - and a war on the diplomatic front. Iran is playing for a diplomatic stalemate because they have an overwhelming advantage on the ground. 2. The economic impact of wars sooner or later come to overwhelm whatever other 'fundamental' or 'technical' factors one may be looking at. As such, understanding the nature of the international war-front is essential to understanding and catching some of the largest trends during turbulent times. Hence this thread ... Please, no Bush diatribes here, just the facts!
Hi to all, It is stupid action to launch war, in order to achieve economic growth. For me it means "THE" countries which are interested in war they are so weak that for them there is no other way to develop or upper govnrs are stpd. I hope there won't be any war in the world. Why do we need it? AT
Life as we know it will be over??? I seriously doubt it. Possible, but I doubt it. If they got the bomb, the ultimate target is lower manhatten. If they could deliver the bomb there and detonate, it would really suck to be in a few miles of the city. That would change life as we know it. The problems are, how do they build this bomb? If they do, it will probably be small, even though a small nuke could really mess up the wall st area, business would continue in Jersey city. How do you deliver this bomb? They probably cannot get close enough to deliver it by missile, so it would have to be smuggled in and driven. Thats a lot harder than you would think. A suitcase bomb, while pretty scary, is very complicated and probably not gonna happen for Iran. Lets say it does happen. One bomb messes up NYC. Since we have the most advanced military on the planet, and since we spent more in the last few years on defense than the rest of the planet COMBINED, we will wipe them out. Knock them back to the stone age. Which for them only puts them about a week and half back. Then that also opens a huge can of worms for the rest of the planet. Because now we have carte blanche to use a well deserved right of pre-emptive attacks on anyone we choose. I know that the other large govts do not want that. Do you really need a nuke to destroy a place? Not really. A dirty bomb in NYC has the same effect. Not as much damage, but the place is rendered unihabitable. Not as much gore and destruction, but you pretty much wiped the area out. Is Iran really that close to getting nukes? Probably not. If they were, we would have done something, or allowed Israel to do it so we don't look like the bad guys. I think they want nukes, and are probably trying to build them, but in reality they are probably not that close. I think we are just testing the waters. Lets issue press releases that they are close and see if public support gives us enough to justify going to war. If the people are scared enough, they will let us go, if not, we try again next year to see if they are ready to support going to war. If I was the leader of Iran and had the bomb, would I talk trash about wiping Israel off the map if that was my plan? Probably not, I would probably just do it. If I did not have the bomb and was not even close to getting it, would I talk trash about Israel to look like a tough guy to the other arab nations and the rest of the world? Probably. But thats just my opinion and I could be totally wrong.
The Islamic extremists believe that there can only be one religion and that it is their duty to convert the world to it, by force if neccessary. I dont see how war can be avoided. I just hope we dont let them get too well armed first.
Well the crusades were pretty effective. Gotta give the Islamic extremists some credit, at least they are trying a technique that has worked in the past. Maybe I should give up trying to learn Chinese and switch to Arabic?
These threads are always a great read. They start off so informative, and then always - inevitably - return to some war games simulation of arm chair quarterbacks.