It just struck me like brick - the market began to aggressively price in a war with Iran today. That is not idle chit chat - from USD weakening, to curve steepening and long end falling, rising oil and gold ... and note Iran came out in defiance of the UN Security Council today. The only thing we didn't see is equities falling, but that doesn't necessarily negate the thesis if one assumes Fed easing in lead-up to war and that both war and low rates are good for stocks. Mark this folks - Iran issue looks to increasingly steer the market going forward. That is all I have for now but would be interested opening up discussion on this.
Well no doubt about it, if it wasn't for the Iraq quagmire, may be US missiles would have already gone in and blown the living f**k out of all of Iran's nuclear facilities.
Rising gold and oil,yes, but dollar and bond changes, don't know. These have also been argued the opposite way amid int'l strife in the past.
so they are pricing in a war but crushing the safest thing out there, Treasuries? I don't think so. Iran is far, far off money managers' minds according to most surveys I've seen. Down there with bird flu.
The market discovered that 5% in May is a lock and 5.25% in June is likely. Managers are adjusting their positions to match. You also have the speculators who were hoping for an end of cycle rally exiting. I doubt there is much more to it than that.
its a stretch that we will attack iran. they were warned with a firm " we will ignore you sometimes" for non compliance within 30 days. means jack. US could not go it alone in Iran. Simply not enough resources. They would love to because the Euro denominated oil issue is a huge threat. Euro denominated oil puts US out of business and causes a trillion dollar problem at home to add to the other 9 trillion. Plus, it would be a great way to divert attention and buy time for the Georgey Push mess in Iraq and the HUGE financial mess at home. Plus Georgey just seems to like doing stupid shit. At the UN level - China and Russia are not going to approve war in Iran. And who knows what france wants besides poutine. With respect to poutine. mmmmmmmmmmm..... poutine.....
Well, you take an overly simplistic view. Who said it would necessarily be the US per say that would 'launch a war'' along the same lines as Iraq?? Iraqi or Iranian media reported recently that British forces were using their position in southern Iraq to sabotage Iranian oil fields. This is how the Iran will be fought - it is already ongoing, though we are not likely to see US tanks rolling across the Iran border unless the situation becomes absolutely hopeless. Still, the time to stock your backyard bunker is now.