IMHO, spoos approximate "fair value" at 675 with or without war. As far as what happens when the war starts, it will certainly be a strong rally, but I am more interested what happens the two weeks after the first shot is fired. The "day of" the spoos will open up +30 or +35 or more, so unless you are prepared for the rally, it will be difficult to take advantage of it. As to the calls, well, if the spoos keep going down between now and the start of the war, EVEN with a strong rally the calls will barely be in the money. On the other hand, I like the way Electric has been trading lately, so this may be the start of the final bottoming process. nitro
if "everyone" anticipates a rally once the bombs start dropping, "everyone" will BUY thus creating a self fulfilling prophecy. open your eyes, my friends. surfer
if we go to war this weekend we could reach enough fear to rally next week. i think however it will be short lived, as islam will attack us on all fronts.
Well I was in Vietnam and can't recall them ever having an advantage due to numbers... the one thing it did prove, again, is that politicians have a penchant for betraying troops in the field. Let them induct all the bodies they want to. How are they going to move them in strength over distance? Now the taiwan thing is another issue. That's a real threat IMO
But how twisted is this. It looks a little LESS likely @ ~2:20 that there will be a war (due to the French announcement at UN), and the market DROPS. I guess all the smart money positioning for a war bump felt they may have jumped the gun a little. The market is definitely a chess match, do doubt about it.