Discussion in 'Trading' started by marketsurfer, Feb 26, 2003.

  1. once ( if ) the bombs start dropping, get ready for a massive rally on the upside. it happened before, it WILL happen again.

  2. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    yep, because everyone has not already bought calls for just that scenario :)
  3. I think there are others buying dips in anticipation of a war rally, which could be the best rally of the year. The latest "deadline" I have heard in the media is March 7th.
  4. Ditch


    I don't want to spoil your party, but what if the bombs start going off on us-soil as well, which i wouldn't eliminate totally as a possibility.
  5. Anticipating this "war rally", all that comes to mind is that the market can stay irrational far longer than you have liquidity.

    Buy in now, and the "war rally" can start from much lower levels, maybe even significantly below the Oct low, so that you finally end up breaking even at best. So the "war rally" that gained 20% from bottom to top ends up making people -5% to +5% for the majority who get in too early or late. The majority are not going to time this war rally correctly.

    Of course you can buy calls...shhh dont tell anyone lest they all do the same thing.
  6. Agree, the number of people who loaded up on March calls anticipating resolution before that date is staggering. I think they lose imo.
  7. I would not be surprised by that. Things that everyone anticipates usually do not happen.
  8. Pabst


    How about worst case scenarios. America fights a two front war with China an enemy on both fronts. China could back North Korea and Pakistan's closest allie is also China. I don't believe for a second that China is going to allow a second rate military power (which is what we are compared to them) push their friends around without a peep. Plus what an opportunity for the Red Menace to get thier hands on Tawain.
  9. The only thing China has over us militarily is manpower because of their da*n overpopulation. We spend 10x as much on our defense and our technology and intelligence are vastly superior.

    How exactly are we second rate?
  10. ecas


    everybody says just that, which usually means it won't happen.
    #10     Feb 26, 2003