On 8/13/2008 and 8/14/2008, war was declared on the central bankers. Over those 2 days, someone took total control over the December gold futures market and said, "that downtrend stops here" and they established a new uptrend line. They are incredibly well capitalized, but their funds are not limitless. The new uptrend line is currently at 818 December. The war occurring as I type this is for control of the trend. Last night, after the markets closed, the bears (the central banks) reclaimed their downtrend line. Gold is currently trading at 801 December and trending down directly on that line. Which line would you like to claim? If you would you like to help kill the central banks, DO NOT SELL the gold futures market. Watch gold. The people who declared this war are well capitalized and know how to move markets, but ultimately the market is decided by its participants. Which side are you on?
Long term I'd bet on the "speculators", even though they don't have unlimited funds, they are usually a hell of a lot smarter than the government.
OK. Let me see here. Gold is going to go to the moon, right? But you want me to defend it at 800, right? But if it is going higher, wouldn't I want it to fall as low as possible so I could scoop up as much as possible before it goes to the moon? Hmm. I like my plan better.
Gold is headed for the long term trendline, ~2001 to 2005 lows, if it bounces it might run up, if it just ignores the line, look out below....... and oil and war jitters seem to be over too so I'm guessing it will break the trendline and head on down... and the 50 day moving avg is crossing the 200, something like that, I don't recall specifics but I was looking at xome charts of gold indexes today for a friends account, I have no stake in it whatsoever really.... but I could see not a single reason to buy it, to say the least.
Ok, whoever finds the most errors in this post wins! Alright, lemme go first: Error#1: December Gold closed down $17 today. Error#2: You're looking at the relatively thin & insignificant December contracts, instead of watching spot month (where all the action is) like everyone else. Are you also already using ES8Z (December e-minis instead of September/ES8U)? Because that would be equally ridiculous. Error#3: <i>"The new uptrend line is currently at 818 December"</i>... WTF is an 'uptrend line'?! Is that what all the cool kids are calling support levels these days? Error#4: The assumption that gold's recent movement is some kind of special case 'war' instead of normal market action, despite a complete lack of supporting evidence. Error#5: The assumption that gold holding steady or rallying a few bucks would somehow 'kill' the central banks. However, other than these few little issues, your reasoning is perfectly sound.
I wish, in my moderator abilities, I had the option to move this stupid thread to Kitco forums where the other tin foil hats are.
Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the trend. Central bankers don't give a $hit about gold prices. Gold has plunged (and will continue to plunge) because the inflation has improved (from lower oil and commodity prices), and less recession fears.