War Optimism

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by stocon, Mar 23, 2003.

  1. stocon

    stocon

    Is anyone feeling a little less confident about the War? I know it's early but my stomach feels alot worse today than Friday. Market is betting big on a cake walk and it's usually right, although the futures are dn, this could simply be profit taken, we'll see. l support w and his policy, it's just starting to feel real ugly, for lack of a better word and it could be a real test for public support if it does not go too smoothy as anticipated. I say this because I can't believe how quickly my own attitude has changed from overly confident to overly concerned.
     
  2. Well, I have been trying to get short some NDX Puts at favorable prices, so I need some pessimism in the market. I had to scramble a little bit last week to lessen my exposure to an upside move. In my opinion, the closer we get to Baghdad, the more likely we are to experience some market-moving desperate acts on the part of our enemy. When you back a man into a corner, leaving him nowhere else to go, he will fight as if he has nothing to lose.
     
  3. Was just thinking the same thing. Much of last week's rally was probably built in anticipation of the war being over quickly, but my gut is telling me many were not expecting the events that occurred this weekend. Combined with a market that was technically getting overbought, we could see some selling over the next day or two. Nevertheless, a lot of key technicals are suggesting buying on weakness (primarily the key breaks of weekly trendline resistance on the major indices and increasing volume). Time will tell. . .
     
  4. We live in a Headline News society, impatient, fickle, demanding, and quite unrealistic.

    There was some hope that there would be a surrender of the Iraqi leadership, but they are proving that they would rather rule in Hell than serve in Heaven, just like the devils they really are.

    We are hearing reports of Americans killed, and most people weren't prepared for that.

    There will be loss of lives, American lives in this process. However, we will be victorious no matter how long it takes.

    Whether or not that victory can be maintained over the next decade or two, is yet to be determined.

    What is truly mind blowing, is that if the war doesn't go well, and the economy continues to struggle, we could see a brand new administration in Washington in 2004, who has a completely different take on terrorism and Iraq. I could see a new administration completely abandon Iraq and the efforts to date.

    What a waste if we don't follow through on what we have started to fulfillment of the goal.

    Foreign policy should be consistent throughout more than just a change of leadership in the Oval Office.
     
  5. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Im not an expert on the milatary, but it seems to me that this might be the first "real" war (Iraq) that we have gotten into for some time. The stated purpose is to overthrow a government and replace it with one more to our liking. I suppose that the Gov't has done this for years, but its mostly been by proxy, now we are doing it ourselves and that could make for a lot more difficulty then people are thinking we will get.

    Brandon
     
  6. People expect too much from both the market and from what people tell them.
    Since when do you believe every word a politician says?
    Of course there will be casualties, it's a war from crying out loud. There are over 200K military Iraqis on the other side and even though many are surrendering, that leaves quite a bit on their own terrain. If people think it's ugly now, they really should turn off their TV sets when coalition forces get closer to Baghdad. It's gonna get really ugly.
    Why do you think war veterans are against the war in the first place?
     
  7. Precisely.

    A lot folks don't know that in urban combat, if you take a target with 50% casualties to the attacking force, you have done well.
     
  8. It has been stated that the agenda communicated to the would-be New leaders (now in exile) of Iraq, have been to count on US prescence for the next eight (8) years. That would demand persistent conviction from several administrations.
     
  9. there are still a few tens of thousands of republican guard and other special forces loyal to Sadam ( the only ones benefitting from his regime and the equivalent of the "SS" of the nazis ). When they are dead the war will be over.
     
  10. TBA

    TBA

    If you had seen that PoW video, you would have felt much worse. Also that Um kasr fighting. War has only started now, and whatever has been said earlier about a quick easy victory was nothing but lies.

    I was just reading another horrifying piece of news. During the past couple of days, more than 1,200 Iraqis have left Jordan on their way back to Iraq to fight agaisnt US forces and protect their country. A third disturbing factor, nobody's celebrating US troops, except maybe a minorty. A fourth distirbing, no clear evidence so far of weapons of mass destruction. Under massive criticism, today they leaked unconfirmed news about a potential factory, which I'm sure would turn out to be another lie.

    I am agaisnt war, have been so long before it started, and wouldn't have changed my mind unless the UN would have backed it. let's see how many would join me in the days to come.
     
    #10     Mar 24, 2003