War Discount to Peace time STATISTICAL BACKTESTING

Discussion in 'Trading' started by sportsguy, Mar 3, 2003.

  1. This PREWAR hangover falls into the sentiment area, IMO,
    and so i have been testing a PREWAR variable in the sentiment area, and the variable is also tested similarly in the 1990-91 time period, in which i was trading so i know the dates.
    i have been testing some prewar and post war
    variables, and this is what i have found, however,
    i could use some input as to approximately what date
    did we transition from recovery from ATTACK defensive status to WAR offensive talk against IRAQ. i currently have it starting around May of last year, but someone might be able to give me a better date.

    In this testing, there is no such variable to represent a post war success, or a post war rally. .. what occurs is a prewar variable that represents the uncertainty of the market of the outcome is eliminated or flipped from one to zero, and once that disappears the market rebounds back to normal valuation ranges. makes sense intuitively, but you can't model the post war rally, you can only model the prewar cloud of uncertainty being removed.

    Currently, I estimate the uncertainty at 3.1 P/E ratio points, or
    on $45 annual earnings, nearly 140 points of S&P uncertainty priced into the current market. . . if the uncertainty is removed tomorrow with exile, or asassination, expect approximately a 15% rally in the SP500 up to around 980. . . .

    now, this scenario will happen only with an exile, peaceful resolution. . . if there is actual war, the only way this result will occur is if its a five day war, over clean and quickly.