The markets are not always right, in fact consistently wrong, and this is the reason why we make money because the markets are a result of a group think that is more wrong than right. I think what you are really referring to is, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" You can be right on an idea and lose money, timing and risk management is everything. Being "right" on the execution of the idea is more important than being right on the idea itself.
i like your post and town trader, there is no edge, imagine every one that worked at the carnival ,were in a clique, they have a vow of silence,you will never be a carny or a gs employee,the edge is to read thru the lie,charts,and every read that suppports /denies it is your read,.....edge....ta...pa....they help..but really the game is reading the carnies lies...the market psychology...the most basic of human herding..is the read...edge...no edge...just believe you are being lied to...the judge...the attorney..the testimony..are all working in sync..you need to see thier rational..read the results ...and wait for the lie to surface...basically when the public realizes ...again and again...it aint true...and bails..you will make small money on the former late..you will make big money on the latter early
Good points, especially market psychology, it's the same in any form of gambling, and that what the markets are IMO. I agree, I never understood why some many say you have to have an edge? Just bet consistently better than most and you will do alright.
heres a question/tip/misnomer...watch the support res/lines...when we get close,if we hit a resistance line and blow thru.its a great short or we run to next line.. and they will unload at a higher price, not enough stops above to worry about a top and we can unload higher...if we get near and stall under..thats distribution..if we hit the line and the sells come pouring in ..we go down...if we stall under it and go sideways..the we could guess that the fat boys were selling everything and not sharing with the stops that were about to make it drop 5 points or 60 ..just one of many cloudy thoughts that come up in the pscyho market read..they wouldnt make 10% of their current return if they would let it play out in nerd sharing time..thsi is wanting to be right and waiting for your projected number played out in spades ..over and over..same on the supports...none of this is testable..for a reason..just some food for thought
I second that. It was always my intent to learn the markets on my own. No outside help or gifts. It took 6 years. To me, it was more about the challenge. The achievement. Not the money. Although the money was a close second.
Thank you for your views and explaining how you consistently make money as a result of profiting from market group think that is consistently wrong, i. e., the market can stay irrational longer than another criteria you know of. Then you discuss an idea and how such an idea affords you losing money with the idea. To counter this loss you suggest timing and risk manangement trump the idea since they are everything. This orientation causes a shift, you say, to being correct on the execution. The idea itself is less important. My reply to this configuration is as follows. I personally feel that the mind summons up a rational inference for any sensing of the market's offer. The market may be as you describe but, always the mind's inference matches the scene. sensing(10%) plus inference(90%) = perception(100%) This eliminates a measurement as to whether the market is, in your terms, rational or not rational. The inference of my mind, thus, always matches to the market what I sense. In ATS terms, this is a logic oriented filtering process that yeilds a sufficient data set containing the appropriate degrees of freedom for sufficiency. This result is small and elegant because of the parametric measures chosen. My sufficient information is always correct and it is from the markets. I use finite sets for analysis. Monitoring information is matched to predetermined analysis conclusions on a one on one basis. This means the monitoring data set always consistently produces an identitcal analysis result for a givien monitoring data set whenever that data set appears. The one on one relationship of the finite sets assures that the market's offer is always taken as the series of stages of market operation occur. No risk is involved. Money management is a function of a multiple of the market capacity and a harmonic analysis to determine the required partial fill strategy. All the time as much capital as possible is being applied. Analysis has a purpose. Analysis creates a record of the order of events within the limits of the non stationarity of the market. The order of events is a basic pattern (B2B 2R 2B or R2R 2B 2R) with three possible and easily identifiable sub loops: VE's, Fanning and Extension. These only occur after the pattern parallelogram is established. It may be clear from my comments that I do not consider the market myth you quoted. Further, timing comes from doing an analysis routine in finite math, and there is no risk at any time since the parametric measures are 100% certain due to their chosen nature (All are binary vectors). In trading, it may be said that there is a path. When I went down that path, I did see all the myths of the CW. I also passed by and left by the roadside the term "irrationality". Eliminating noise and anomalies was also a series of tasks to be undertaken as we continued. The market's offer is continuous, it turns out. It is available to everyone and there is no competition for the offer. Whether trading manually or on ATS's; it is done with "unconscious competence"; that is it is a mind game that is done automatically under no risk. Full time trading is something to consider. In the spectrum of traders there is a slot that requires full time to be successful. As a trader finds himself further up the spectrum, the concept of full time no longer applies. At the highest part of the trader spectrum there is no limit on capital money velocitiy profiting. no stops. no exit/entry no money management (except for partial fills dictated by market capacity) no risk No anomalies. Trading is the continuous taking of the market's offer segment by segment of the offer. When doing this the market is always right.