Not sure why I'm banned. No malicious intent. I put an email address in a post. Perhaps that's why. Haven't had time to contact the administrator. And have nothing to sell other than a long term eur$ position but am waiting for a 200 - 700+ pip retracement from 3/11/05 on the 1 hr. What have you learned about fractals?
ElectricSavant: Yes, statistically, the crime rate does increase on full moon nights. I learned it from my dad who was a cop. He always got the most calls during full moon nights. Know why? Only because more people are outside roaming about when you can see where you're going. That's all. The same reason why more people go outside to enjoy the weather on a nice blue sky day. Funny how these things always come back around to "because of the because", not "because of the belief". Like, things end up being the way they are based off correlations that we usually can't see yet until we learn more about it, *NOT* the correlation that we instantly assume and go off on about. Well, it must be because of this... etc.. all that nonsense. The reason for things is usually moreso because of a simple catalyst which we originally had no clue about until after the fact (considering things which we don't see right now). I hope the above paragraph is understandable. People often reply back with "wtf, were you talking about", etc. Haha, it sort of sucks when you yourself know exactly what you're talking about but it's so abstract that it becomes harder & harder to put into words the deeper you try to think about it. So that solution I guess is to just stop thinking which I'll do now=) Avadon
My sister-in-law works at a "loonie" bin. She'd tell you that emotions are generally running higher during the full moon. And what about the waves. Have you observed any changes during a full moon? How about elliott waves? Might be fun to backtest. ;-)
See now, perhaps that is because she's focusing on the fact that it "appears" to be more emotional activity on full moon nights, not necessarily because there actually is. The same thing when you learn a new word from the dictionary and then you end up seeing that word 3 to 4 times within that same week whereas before you could have swore you never laid eyes on it before. When you focus on something it becomes real to the believer. In conclusion: We can't know truth with our own perceptions.
same thing why a 6,6,6,6,6 roll on a dice appear "special" when a 1,4,5,2,3 has the same probability of occurring.
There is something to this lunar cycle stuff, for sure. A lot of large moves and trends develop at these times: Its just a co-incidence, they co-incide with many contract month rollovers. What do i know about fractal strategy? Like i said, a thing or two-so thats one or two things. You didnt mention you had to be any good! Seriously though, equating Williams with "new age" stuff is a little steep. Jmo, but my perspective here. 1. Williams books are primarily about phsychology. 2. The basic strategy, is to focus exclusively on strongly trending markets, and staying on the right side of the trend. Not exactly groundbreaking, right? But the more you think you know about these things, the easier it is to lose focus on the bread and butter basics, which i suspect is his point overall. He never said, "do this and only this" , or else. I read someone describe his books as "naive and simplistic". Well of course they are-how is a confused, baffled, losing trader going to cope with complex, professional strategies? Particularly, if thats whats losing them money?
It's the reaction to it, that is paramount. I believe that the reaction process can actually make random reality, a more probable outcome...
Electric, i seem to be suffering a logic-brain spasm here (yes, this occurs frequently) but could you put that in plain language? Youre saying the reaction to equal odds outcomes determines.... huh?
Lol...sorry What I was trying to say is that if one has an input of random. That is reality. It is not predictable. Its your reaction that may be able to be measured. But garbage in, is garbage out right? So, if you can tighten the risk when you react to the first random input, then in essence you are changing random to probable, even though you still do not know the outcome of the next input. Probable can be in the profitable direction, allowing you to tighten risk even more. Probable can be in the negative direction, thus shortening your time in the trade. I suppose random in the markets we trade, could have a possible range and not truly random input, and if that were true, I could definetly say that the reaction to random, therefore can equal a measurable probability. To make this more interesting, I do not believe the markets are random, or there would be no trends...right? Movement=Trend (time is the variable) Michael B. P.S. Would you like to hear an interpretation/definition of infinity in trading the markets? I can identify it with "simple speak" on long trades (yes this has something to do with random). P.P.S. Lets review. We have: input time range mae mfe output items 2-5 combined, essentially identify volatility and can identify momentum. A trader can measure deviations to take random a step further into the measured direction of probability through his/her reaction as long as random is in a defined range. Now if random is not in a defined range, the trader can apply wave analysis to try and get a handle on the momentum, trend and volatility.