Nice strategy, I agree, Things like KO , and Util stocks, how can you go wrong? Company won' go brokebroke within 30 minutes. The only problem was even sitting next to the computer in that allotted 10 minutes to do that sort of buying, re: your sell at the end of the market thing Man thats like some ninja move there. Considering we know price action is bound to retouch yesterdays extreme lows in due time.
It's beginning to look like another one of those almost perfect calls in the Want To Share Journal (Just tooting my horn). I'm not sure about you guys, but the stuff that I was unloading (Higher Beta overweight materials and commodities like I always do) from 4/17-4/27 (My two warnings) sure has taken a bath since then... I guess for now sitting in Cash (US dollars) has paid off, but you know I'm always loaded up with physical metal via CEF....The recent bond rally I missed, but we can't catch them all... Happy trading and Good Luck to all.... $COSTAverageMAN
Everything always looks a little different when you price it in gold! Go ahead back the charts out as far as you want.(the gold anomaly of the 1980's not included) CHARTS THE WAY I SEE THE WORLD.....NOT THE WAY THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE WANTS YOU TO SEE THEM..... S&P priced in gold http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx:$gold EURO priced in gold...no wonder GERMANY is pissed! http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$xeu:$gold Check what Corporates look like without the gold priced in...LOL http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$djcb:$gold And then there is always government bonds http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$djcbti:$gold But Small caps are sure to outperform...Or not http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$rut:$gold If you have never done this before I bet your scratching your head as you might just now be realizing that cognitive dissonance has kept you in this market. I trade and market time cause I have the time and the passion for it, but the investing class is not really getting much bang for their buck over the last decade plus; minus inflation. Shockingly I'm sitting in the right fiat currency at the moment, but the Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Norway's Krona, Chinese Yuan and more physical are on my mind. By the way people check how bad PHYS got hammered today on the secondary they offered...It's so sad to see people doing the right thing, but paying for their stupidity.....Just type PHYS.NV to check the real price and pay maybe up 8% for it at the most...I have always been a CEF person myself. Careful out there ROUND 2 started a month ago, but it will be one heck of a traders game. $COSTAverageMAN
$cost, I was thinking of exchanging the EUROS from dollars, but its one fiat to another, pretty much the same issue, maybe slightly better fiat, I was researching warren buffet, on his position on fiat monetary, He mentioned something of being invested in foreign companies that have income in foreign currency as hedges. He never does the FX markets, whats your take and your outlook ?
Well I made some decent coin buying panic...So today I went on an Off Shore drilling nibble..... DO---57.50 NE---27.40 ESV---35.52 PDE---22.67 ATW---26.31 OII---41.88 Like I said this is just starter positions, but the price is pretty right. All very recent purchases and this is a very risky play given everything going on. It's been a long time since I made a public call like this in single name securities, but I thought this was one of those calls I wanted in the Journal. $COSTAverageMAN
Well the news is out and like any good swing trade I like to sell the news....This has been a 2 month swing trade and was the only sector I played over the June Slide and the July rally(OILS ONLY). Looking back I can't think of a better sector I would of wanted to be in from the inception point. Buying fear worked this time, but this little trick might not work out in the fear I see coming down the road. Unloading all initial capital today and just letting the houses money run. Used this ISM # bump up to exit these names. DO, RIG, PDE, ATW, OII, APC, APA, HAL, SLB, PTR, SU, REP, TOT, EC, HES, IOC, BP, RDC, BRY, FST, STR, DNR, HP, TLW.LON Still going to hold the pipelines and the Russian Majors. Going to take it easy for a while and enjoy my point .00001% I get in the sweep accounts...Thanks Ben! $COSTAverageMAN
Some clearification of the fear you see coming would be nice. How about you second half outlook ...test old highs or dow under 10,000. thanks,t
Some of the "Fear" I see coming. AUD/USD approaching resistance level of .92-.94 which is the one leg of the carry trade that has been pushing the indexes. USD/JPY busting through 1.17 today then sharply correcting on the ADP is the only reason we got this little giddy rally today, but on a bad jobs number on Friday we will push USD/JPY to new highs roughly at the same time AUD/USD will be ready to correct. (May give it a few weeks, but It's coming) AUD/JPY is your carry of choice trade...The Algo's are roughly programmed to this Risk On Risk Off metric. EUR/JPY may come back into play if we get some dollar strength. Next the Spread between the Stock Market and the Bond Market has really disconnected and quite frankly I trust what the bond market is telling me. Those boys are really pricing in some scary times and the Fed can play all the little games it wants, but eventually trust will be lost. Didn't a private credit rating agency in China down grade US treasuries and Since Moody's and S&P can't be trusted who can give us a decent grade on our paper. Euribor is telling me that Banks still don't trust one another over in Europe and all they did was kick the can down the road over there for a while. Expect that to come roaring back. STUPID FIAT MONEY (Spain, Turkey, UK, Portugal, Italy, Dubai---Florida, Illinois, Arizona, Tennessee, Michigan, Oregon, Nevada, nEw York) Enough said! ECRI Index looks like double dip! Only 5 of the last 40 Government data points came in better than expected , Yet we rallied on every bad number almost. Housing is a joke. Shadow inventory is every where and price stabilization is not going to last. Perfect example a 800K home in 2007 in Americas top 25 suburbs to live in is selling for 194,000 Bank owned with a sign that has been up for 3 months. (that's 75%+ off and been available for 3 months) Just Caution Advised going forward I like the plays that have real assets in the ground, but if it's apart of the whole Ponzi Finance scheme count me out. "Want to Brag" well All I have ever done is share my entries and exits on broad indexed based swing trades. If they worked well then you call it bragging, If you followed along then you wouldn't call it that. Why don't you check the performance of every industry from June 1st till today and see where Off Shore Drilling/oil service shows up on the ranking. I do find it Ironic how now that the BP issue is "better" people buy hand over fist for these names that I was happy to exit from.
Up a little early so I figured I would update the journal on my thoughts for the week. The most important thing I'm keeping an eye on is the USD index sitting right on the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 80.34 if I calculated it right. Dollar strength against the AUD and EUR with a flat to increasing YEN would be a very nasty scenario moving forward if the YEN weakens with the other 2 pairs then we might stay flat for the week, but this is all dependent on a dollar bounce actually occurring. I'm in the RISK off mode this week as the upside for stocks is facing some large technical resistance levels for the carry trades. Short positions might be worth a look or at least hedge your longs. If the worst case scenario does start to play out I would look at some naked puts on the MOMO sectors of the recent rally. Best wishes and good luck trading. $COSTAverageMAN