Were there other factors that made you bearish besides many stocks having this huge run up? Your ability to identify and spot emerging trends is extraordinary......
Today I went on another heavy selling spree....Now this time it was IMHO time to sell the international ADRs ETFs CEFs....WHY? no reason except to not give back these gains....The List: ALL POSITIONS BELOW FULLY LIQUIDATED.....VACATION TIME!!!!!!! BANKS: BCS, RBS, LYG, HBC, IBN, HBD, BBD, UBB, ITUB, BAP, MTU, IRE, AIB, KB, DB AUTOS: DAI, NSANY, TTM, TM, XIDE SOLAR: SOLF, LDK, SOL, STP, CSIQ, CSUN, TSL, JASO PAPER/SUGAR/FOOD: VCP, ARA, CZZ, GMK STEEL/COAL: TX, YZC, MT, TCK, MTL, BHP, VALE, RTP, SID, SIM, GGB, SUTR ENERGY TRUST: AAV, ERF, PWE, PDS, PVX, PGH OILS: LUKOY, OGZPY, PBR, PTR, CEO, SU, CNQ, NXY, TLM, BQI, ULTR, NOA TELCO: CHU, CHL, CHA, QXM, GRRF, TSTC, UTSI, ALU CEMENT/INFASTRUCTURE: CX, ABB UTILITY: SBS, EBR, ELP, KEP, HNP, TECH: PHG, SNE, HIT, FUJI, FMCN, BIDU, SINA, SOHU, SNDA, REDF, NTES PHARMA: RDY, GSK, SNY, SVA, TBV MEDIA: CETV SHIPS: EXM, NM INSURANCE: AEG, AZ, AGO, DIAMONDS: HWD LEASING/REIT: AER, MIM, GLS, CHEMICAL: IOSP GOLD CEF'S: ASA, CEF LEVERAGED Etf's----EDC, ERX IRELAND; IRL BRAZIL: EWZ GERMANY: GF HONG KONG: EWH RUSSIA: CEE, RSX, TRF CHINA: CAF, TAO ASIA: APF, APB GLOBAL FUNDS AND PREFERRED CLOSED END FUNDS: PGP, GGT, BPP, JTP, JPC, FFC, BQR $COSTAverageMAN
Looking like someone got lucky again....It's only "green shoots" if you lock up your gains.... $COSTAverageMAN
You're just lucky I always love reading what you're up to... it gets filed into the "what other people are doing" part of my trading analysis. You're one of the wise ones! Please keep it up!
Completely out of every stock position today in every account....I have slowly been picking up hedges to protect currency and commodity positions...I feel as if the markets are currently in the eye of a hurricane right now as people are coming out of their shelters and looking at this beautiful "green shoots" sky, completely unaware that they are just in the eye of the storm... It's not going to bother me one bit to miss a 10-20% move one way or the other...We all better pray that all these treasury auctions go smoothly over the next 6 months...I really don't want to be around when/if one of those 30 year auctions go array... On a side note I'm in my 70's so my risk tolerance currently is biased... $COSTAverageMAN
Cost, glad to see your still posting . I think your right on with your analysis. I hope we get 800 before1000. Another week or two should tell the story. I thought there was no reason to be long stocks over the summer but i was unsure about all that stimulus money.
Well, perhaps the bet then to place are some OTM options on the ZB. I have remained from 50-85% cash or short term instruments in the last year or so with specific short term trades and options plays. No killings this year, I am afraid, but that is more of a function of reduced position size. Don't feel too bad though - if you don't lose it in the market, you'll lose it to the taxman.
In terms of what would happen if there was difficulty finding buyers for the 30 year, what might happen because of that? What are some things to look for that might point towards that likely happening? Good to see $Cost posting again. G
For those of you who have followed the journal over time you know every once in a while I like to come back and update my calls I make in this journal(Right and Wrong)....Which if all you spent was 5 minutes with stockcharts.com open and looked at some of them back when they were made look pretty darn impressive I must say....I don't put them there for myself, but for nothing more than to "WANT TO SHARE" what I'm doing....BTW consistency is key in this business and making them public well those calls should have me on CNBC hands down....Wheres my TV show-- lets really actually help people...Just kidding I highly recommend going and looking at the 5/20, 6/1, 6/10 calls cause it may help explain with where I'm going next with my thoughts... So we have pretty much seen a massive move out of high risk and into "Perceived less risky positions" as of late(Drugs, Utilities, Treasuries and Staples) have all outperformed during this little hick up....High beta (Momentum) names are really under performing since we started this roll and I'm not going to say it is over till I see it....Maybe today, maybe next week, maybe next year is when your going to want to load back up with Risk but only time/the charts will tell.... I'm leaning/prepared for worse times to come with proper currency and commodity hedges in place....US stocks currently open=0.....It's time for me to just intra day trade the indexes/ETF's and enjoy life again....Even though I did just catch a pretty nice 2 day move over in Hong Kong on some selected names which got CLOSED out a few hours ago....I'll tell you the last 9 months have been overwhelming for this old fart (EX:Reading, Charting, Buy/Sell orders), but I got the theme of the rally right "BUY-BUY-BUY the Panics-Chase-Chase-Chase Momentum, but don't get caught"... I put together an ultra dumb ed down excel sheet with every position I exited over the last few months with the Average Selling Price and dates....So far the liquidation has saved me a Whooping 11% of the "Anomaly" (portfolio)...I'm tracking it for myself, but If any of you up incoming all star fund managers would like to see what over diversification of MOMENTUM names looks like in an "Anomaly" of a bull market here you go...I will never again in my lifetime see those kind of moves that were made in such a short time frame...Said with confidence...Really makes you wonder? On a side note Gazprom (OGZPY) and Lukoil (LUKOY) where a steal yesterday Remember this is just for measuring how much was saved by exiting....$ Amount of portfolio is not on there, so don't bother if that is what peeks your interest $COSTAverageMAN P.S: Elite Trader the .XLSX file extensions for excel would bring this journal back to life....Having to change the formats is not allowing any pie charts, conditional formatting, data(stock quote) gathering functions and many more issues