I back tested tuesdays action on the portfolio and I would of lost more than 2 mil If I was 100% long....Instead I was close to 40% short, 30% Long and 30% cash and hedged with a 1450/1430 collar for march....I took my double inverse funds off the table at (MZZ and QID) 9:48am and 9:51am (TWM)today...Bought some of the DDM, QLD, SSO and MVV with the new CASH, but watching closely....CASH WAS KING...Nice Bounce today.... Anybody use any of the Profunds for a hedge... I bought some strong companies like TRN, LRCX, MSFT, GE, JNJ, XING, EBAY, IBM and others... I love complacency in the market....Buy the Fear and Sell the greed.... *******These were all previous post in this journal and a bunch of dam good warnings...... It's all about the Bank of Japan.... BoJ rate decision: I think the market is paying more heed to the risk of the yen weakening if rates are held steady, rather than the risk of the yen strengthening in the event of a rate rise - trader - Yuji Matsuura at Aozora Banks It's all about pressure on the CARRY TRADE....If borrows worry or not.... and in my opinion they will have to worry in either paulisble decision the BoJ makes, we get another round of selling....It's like we forget what caused us to sell off in MAY....It was a serious unwinding of the carry trade and it spooked everyone....Now we a very similiar setup happening....I mean Margin was just reported to be at an all time high from the NYSE today after the bell.... 02-07-07 06:15 PM I am quite conservative right now and I did sell 1/5 of my portfolio today and put it short in the TWM and MZZ...Making this play was hard for me in this market, but like I said before early Feb. is where I felt the market was going to get it's pull back....Most indicators I follow are showing just small signs of strenght and earning's are almost over....What is the next catalyst? Bernake speaking soon and the risk of being 100% long with out of the money puts as my only protection that I currently think are going to expire worthless is just too optimistic for this old fart..... 02-11-07 08:09 PM Anyone one notice the formation of a pretty clear Head and Shoulders pattern built on the QQQQ's.....Just thought I would mention considering this is the 1st leg of the right shoulder....Classic weak volume going into the head, followed by increasing downside pressure....Weak volume test of the left shoulder highs and Friday we get almost every sector down....Every index except utilities were in the red....Leadership like steel, leisure, financial, paper, telecomm and REITS all down over 1% and many of those stocks took a beating... Needless to say it was a bad day for the market and a bit disturbing seeing the formation on the QQQQ's.....They were a big part of our leadership and could take the DJIA and S&P's right out of thier steady trend line.....Tech made the rally and Tech sure could take it away.....Major leadership broke down Friday and I would be very careful opening up new positions for a hold on Monday....Expiration week as well and Iran on the table....CASH is KING 01-22-07 10:59 AM Emerging MKTS can and will correct....I have a gut feeling it will be in the very early part of Febuary....BTW What about the asia bull market going on....Get on board if you already haven't, because I would be happy to thin my positions out to you... That is all that needs to be said about that bubble...Worried always, but still outperfoming daily... My largest china play was MCHFX and It has been fully closed out....a little over 55% return.....Closed on the 1/22/2007 10. Bank (Foreign) (Been a very big Bull here, but have hedged these positions with a DXESX (Direxion Emerging Mkts Bear 2x fund) and I'm waiting to unload the banks and go fully into this short fund.... $COSTAverageMAN
What a day!!!! Any good stories out there? Anbody Sell puts or straddles early this morning? Volatility is becoming a favorite vehicle all of a sudden....People are going to get burned left and right playing this game....
sold 1640 NQ (nasdaq 100) Mar 16th puts for 10.00 this morning when NQ was around 1728-1730. end of day they closed at 4.00. wish I would've bought NQ futures at the low of the day. oh well. but you're right ... on tuesday, quarterway into the selloff when ES was at 1435 or so, I sold Feb28 1420 puts (not leveraged, just a few) ... Figured a 20 pt move is enough for the day.. hahah. you know how that ends. I let them get assigned the next day, and bought ES at 1385 range ... exited at top of the day today for a small net gain. But lesson: even if puts expire tommorow, don't sell too close. Sell the lower probability strike. Thank god I only sold a few [i only sell what I can afford to get assigned anyway as a rule]. Its dangerous when you get caught assuming volatility is one level, then it changes substantially on you. From hereon out, I think its an easier environment to profit on.
Buying Fear of a weekend and selling the greed bounce yesterday... Not much of a stock flipper, but these Long/Short Inverse funds in this volatility is the only way to go.... Making about +2% a day with these things...Just gotta get the direction right, but that is not the hardest thing currently with the proper programs running....Everyone is one sided and then they flip flop for a day.... My best bet is we open higher on Monday after the worst week in 4 years and Asia has a bounce followed by Europe and we Gap up as well.....That was a weekend Panic sell off in the last 30 minutes..... $COSTAverageMAN
I agree. I did the same thing, but with a twist. I Bot The Rydex otc inverse (RYVNX) a few days ago. Tonight, instead of selling, I went lonq the QQQQ in proportion. Expecting the same pop you are looking for on Monday, I plan to sell the QQQQ, thereby getting short again. The problem with funds is that they only price once or twice a day. Do you know if there are any inverse ETF's (at 200% like the Rydex)?
$Cost, I agree with you, the short/long strategy seems to be the working way to play this market although all of a sudden puts sure got real expensive, didn't they? I've taken my MCHFX and MINDX allocations and turned them into a 50% free option - reduced my allocation into them significantly by taking my profits and then some so that I probably only stand to lose 25% of my original principal if they go to zero, which they won't. Once we correct to a total of at least 15% from the high in china, and drop below 12,000 on the sensex (although I would not be surprised to see 10,000 ish again), I'll start doing your namesake and dca'ing in again. I really do like those two for my 10 year horizon & don't care to be shut out of the funds. February's play was unquestionably the short end on the subprimes. Do we play the bounce in march, like austinp says, or do we return into hunker down mode? I went long some OTM puts on some of the commodity producers out to June as the vols were cheap and they seemed due for a correction at some point. I still have mixed feelings, but the vol was so cheap it was worth the play. 70% cash here. Good luck.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO ME (3/14/1938) 69 years young and healthy as a horse!!!!! The biggest question I have is when to cover my shorts and when to start buying stocks on sale......Big witching week so I got my portfolio prepared for all types of movements....Just don't want to be all one sided....Some Long some Short some Cash some Options some Leveraged Inverse sector ETF's and a few CEF's My largest Mutual fund position currently is EVBLX....Eaton Vance Floating Rate Fund.......Waiting for a bottom to be put in on the global real estate mutual funds....And getting 6.5% to wait ain't bad.... My largest Closed-end fund position is MGU....Macquarie Global infrastructure Total Return Fund..... My largest S&P 500 positions are the Closed-end fund BEO and BEP....S&P 500 Covered Call FUNDS....Beating the SPY over the last 200 days by 22% My 20 largest Short position are CCRT, MCO, CORS, MHO, MTH, SPF, BLG, NDE, NFI, NEW, LEND, FED, FMT, AHM, BKUNA, IBCP, LAB, RATE, HKF, IVC (Mostly lenders of credit and homebuilders with some banks)...Pretty much the same thing everyone is shorting if they could get a fill ...HKF getting removed from the S&P 600 and IVC Issued major refinancing with senior notes....LAB will be holding the bag of both bad tuesdays and the computers are taking over the floor. My favorite longs (NOT LARGEST) right now are: REFINERS----TSO, VLO, MRO, WNR, FTO, ALJ, ETP Liquid Natural Gas----MWP, WPZ, SRE, PIPELINES----EPD, BGH, BWP, VEH, VLI, HEP, SXL, MMP, MWE, MGG, MMLP, DPM, ETE, KMR, EEQ, PAA, EEP, TPP, KMP, STR FERTILIZERS----TNH, TRA, CF, MOS, AGU, POT (With extremely reduced size......Trend is breaking fast here) OTHER odd plays that are working----HBI, PPD, NSRGY, SCI, SEB, ISH and many others.... Over this last weekend the most open interest was in the 1340 puts and then the 1300 puts for march expiration.....I just hope those were mom and pops buying and not institutions!!!! $COSTAverageMAN
Happy birthday, $COST! Glad your positions are doing well, as usual I've been long $VIX calls and have been legging into some straddles and synthetic shorts out on the DIA lately. Anything crazy planned for this momentous day?